澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水量-水能-生态互馈关系模拟  

Simulation of transboundary water-hydropower-ecology nexus in Lancang-Mekong Basin

作　　者：于洋[1] 韩宇[2] 李栋楠[1] 赵建世 YU Yang HAN Yu LI Dongnan ZHAO Jianshi(State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学水利水电工程系水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [2]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《水利学报》2017年第6期720-729,共10页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51579129;51509248);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2015QC025)

摘　　要：澜沧江-湄公河是亚洲的重要国际河流,其水量-水能-生态之间的相互作用关系是流域各国进行利益博弈的重要基础。本文选取上游澜沧江距离出境断面最近(对下游影响最大)的3座水电站年发电量代表水能要素,定义了生态改变系数代表河流生态水文要素,另外用灌溉引水集中的流域下游5国农业用水代表水量要素,通过GAMS建模优化发电调度和生态流量、通过WEAP模型模拟下游5国农业供水量,进而进行水量-水能-生态互馈关系的分析。结果表明,水能与生态之间存在显著的竞争关系,与下游国家总体的农业供水量呈协同关系。在不同的取水情景下,各国的水量-水能-生态互馈关系呈现一定差异,主要表现在农业供水量受水库发电量的影响程度不同,且中国水库适当提高发电量有利于下游国家的农业灌溉,但对生态流量有不利影响,需对流域调控作进一步研究。Lancang-Mekong River is an important international river in Asia, the interactions of its wa-ter-hydropower-ecology is a significant basis for the negotiations of riparian countries. This paper selectsthe annual power production of three hydropower stations on the Lancang River, which are located in thenearest to the boundary（i.e.,the largest impact to downstream）,to represent hydropower aspect. The de-fined ecological alteration coefficients are selected to represent hydrological aspect, while five downstreamcountries’ agricultural water withdrawal from the mainstream are chosen as the representation of water sup-ply aspect. In addition, hydropower generation and environmental flow are optimized by applying a GAMSmodel,as well as the downstream agricultural water withdrawal is simulated by employing the WEAP mod-el. Thus,water-hydropower-ecology nexus among the five downstream countries is conducted. It is conclud-ed that hydropower is competing with environmental flow but coordinating with agricultural water supply.Some differences are found among the interactions of water-hydropower-ecology nexus under different waterwithdrawal scenarios. Agricultural water supply is influenced by hydropower generation by different degreein different scenarios, and increasing hydropower generation in China has positive effects on the irrigationof downstream countries but negative impacts on environmental flow. Thus,basin scale regulation is needed.

关 键 词：澜沧江-湄公河 农业供水量 水能 模拟 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]