基于结构方程模型和模糊综合评价的尾矿库溃坝风险评价  

Risk evaluation of dam-break in tailings pond based on structural equation model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

作　　者：汤文超[1] 黄解军[1] 徐亚琪 唐聪[1] 任乐萌 Tang Wenchao Huang Jiejun Xu Yaqi Tang Cong Ren Lemeng(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China Wuhan Huaxia University of Technology, Wuhan 430223, China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉华夏理工学院,湖北武汉430223

出　　处：《矿山测量》2017年第3期105-109,共5页Mine Surveying

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071104;41301588);中央高校科研专项基金(2014-Ⅱ-007)

摘　　要：结合尾矿库溃坝的致灾机理,通过相关分析法构建了尾矿库溃坝风险体系。利用结构方程模型,确定了溃坝风险指标的权重及各个指标之间的定量关系。结合模糊综合评价方法,构建了尾矿库溃坝风险评价模型,实现了尾矿库溃坝风险等级的定量评价。通过工程实例表明,该方法为尾矿库溃坝风险评价提供了一种有效的方法途径。In the paper, combining with the destructive mechanism of the tailing pond, risk system of tailings pond dam - break was built using the correlation analytical theory. Quantitative relationship between the various indicators and the weight of the dam risk index determined using the structural equation model. Combining with the fuzzy com- prehensive evaluation method, the risk assessment model of tailings dam was constructed and the quantitative evalua- tion of the risk level of the tailings dam. The engineering examples showed that the method provided an effective method for the risk assessment of the railings dam risk.

关 键 词：尾矿库 溃坝风险 指标体系 结构方程模型 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TD76[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全] X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]