基于Monte Carlo模拟的公路网络震后连通性与通行时间分析  

Post-earthquake Connectivity and Travel Time Analysis of Highway Networks Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：侯本伟[1,2] 李小军[1,2] 韩强[1] 刘爱文[2] 兰日清[2] HOU Ben-wei LI Xiao-jun HAN Qiang LIU Ai-wen LAN Ri-qing(Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾教育部重点实验室,北京100124 [2]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2017年第6期287-296,共10页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAL05B05)

摘　　要：为评价公路网络系统震后功能保障能力,基于Monte Carlo(MC)模拟方法建立了路网震后连通可靠度和交通量通行时间分析模型。采用地震易损性曲线表示道路和桥梁的地震破坏状态及其对应的概率;采用道路和桥梁破坏状态对应的连通性、行车速度、通行能力折减系数,表示道路和桥梁结构地震破坏产生的路段通行能力下降;考虑道路和桥梁结构地震破坏不确定性,采用MC方法模拟路段通行能力下降后的路网震后功能。在每次MC抽样计算中,采用宽度优先搜索算法判别路网连通性,采用增量分配算法进行路网静态交通量分配,得到路网整体通行时间。以多次MC模拟计算的路网连通可靠度和通行时间均值,表示路网的震后通行状态,通过算例分析了路网连通性和通行时间分析模型的特点及其适用性。结果表明:路段震后通行能力下降是造成震后路网整体通行时间增加的主要原因,低连通可靠度节点的震后通行时间较高,增加路网交通流量服务供给点(源点)可以提升路网的震后保障能力;连通可靠度分析模型适用于路网参数较少情况下的初步分析;交通流量通行时间分析模型,考虑了路段的交通流通行属性和路网OD交通量参数,可提供较为精确的分析结果。To assess the post-earthquake support capacity of highway networks, the post- earthquake connectivity reliability and traffic travel time analysis model of highway networks were established based on Monte Carlo simulation. The seismic damage states and corresponding probabilities of roads and bridges were evaluated by seismic fragility curves. The descending traffic capacity of road sections, caused by the seismic damages of roads and bridges, was calculated by the reduction factors of the connectivity, travel speed, and traffic capacity of roads and bridges. The Monte Carlo method, in consideration of the uncertainty on seismic damages of roads and bridges, was adopted to simulate the post-earthquake performance of highway networks with the descending traffic capacity. In each Monte Carlo sampling calculation, the highway network connectivity was verified by the breadth first search algorithm. The incremental assignment algorithm was adopted to evaluate the total travel time on basis of the statistic traffic assignment of the highway network. The mean values of connectivity reliabilities and travel time of highway networks were repeatedly calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation, with the result of denoting the post-earthquake state of the highway network. Characteristics and applicability of the highway network connectivity and travel time analysis model were analyzed by the numerical example. The results show that the descending post-earthquake traffic capacity is one of main factors of the increase of total travel time. The reliability node with the low connectivity corresponds to high post-earthquake travel time. And the enhancement of post-earthquake support capability of highway network can be achieved by the increase of origin nodes of network traffic flow. The connectivity reliability model, with a few input parameters, is appropriate for an initial analysis. Meanwhile, considering traffic capacity properties of road sections as well as traffic parameters of origin-destination （OD） networks, the anal

关 键 词：交通工程 公路网络 MC模拟 震后通行时间 连通可靠度 交通流分配 

分 类 号：U491.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]