基于WRF-Flexpart的一次褐飞虱回迁过程模拟研究  

A modeling study of Nilaparvata lugens' return migration by using WRF-Flexpart

作　　者：刘垚[1,2,3] 包云轩[1,2] 陆明红[4] 刘万才[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [3]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川750002 [4]农业部全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125

出　　处：《生态学报》2017年第13期4466-4475,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41475106;41075086);江苏省农业科技自主创新基金项目(CX(12)3056);江苏省高校自然科学研究项目(14KJA170003);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX13_496);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(IRT1147)

摘　　要：褐飞虱是影响亚洲地区水稻生产的迁飞性害虫,其远距离迁飞与种群分布会受到大气环流和局地天气条件的影响。采用WRF-Flexpart耦合模式、GIS空间分析和Vincenty方位角/距离估计等方法,选取2009年9月30日—10月7日发生在中国15个植保站的褐飞虱迁入过程,并根据模式输出、GIS分析和轨迹计算结果探讨了多种大气物理胁迫共存下大气动力场、降水、温度场和湿度场对褐飞虱秋季回迁过程及其降落虫量分布的影响。研究结果表明:(1)此次重大迁飞过程中,大气动力场、降水、温度场和湿度场在不同地区、不同时间段对褐飞虱种群的迁入和降落起了不同的作用,因而造成了迁入虫量分布的时空差异。(2)从各虫源地迁出的褐飞虱种群是向着温暖而湿润的地方迁飞的,迁飞方向主要受所经区域盛行风向的影响,迁飞距离由途径区的风速所决定。(3)当迁飞种群途径局地降水较多的区域时,初期迁入量并不多,经过短暂的一段时间后降虫量会突然增加。(4)在一定的温度范围内,大气湿度条件会影响褐飞虱的迁入虫量:褐飞虱迁入虫量在近地面温度高于26℃、相对湿度(925 hPa)大于70%且下沉气流较强的地区分布最多,而在近地面温度低于24℃、相对湿度(925 hPa)小于50%、无明显下沉气流的地区未发现有褐飞虱的迁入。Nilaparvata lugens （N. Lugens） is one of the pests which have a large detrimental impact on rice production in Asia. Long-distance migration and population distribution are highly dependent on large-scale atmospheric circulation and local weather condition. The observational data of light-trapped pests from 1979 to 2015 were analyzed to quantify the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation on southward migration of N. Lugens. A typical heavy event of southward migration occurring in the major rice-growing regions of the southern China from September 30th to October 7th, 2009 was presented to discuss the impact of different weather conditions on immigration population of N. Lugens in different rice-growing areas in South or Southeast China. The event was characterized by large-range precipitation in South China. A large amount of precipitation and high temperature were observed in the coastal regions of Fujian Province, South Jiangxi Province, and Southwest Hunan Province. In contrast, the rainfall was much less and temperature was relatively lower in the middle and north parts of Jiangxi Province compared to other regions and the rainfall was sporadic and the temperature was high in Hubei Province. As a result, the amount of light-trapped N. Lugens was the largest in the coastal regions of Fujian Province, South Jiangxi Province, and Southwest Hunan Province, and the least in the middle and north parts of Jiangxi Province. The trapped amount in Hubei Province lied in between the two previous group regions. In this study, an online-coupling system of the Weather Research and Forecast Model （WRF） with FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model （FLEXPART） was utilized to simulate the meteorological conditions and to calculate the trajectories and the parameters associated with N. lugens＇ migration. ArcGIS （a geographic information system software） was used to perform detailed spatial analysis and the Vincenty＇s formula was applied to the calculation of azimuth and distance of migration. Several impo

关 键 词：褐飞虱 天气条件 WRF—Flexpart模式 迁飞轨迹 迁入虫量分布 

分 类 号：S435.112.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]