城市道路交通事故率探析  

Analysis of Urban Road Traffic Accidents

作　　者：严守靖 刘敬辉[1] 杨泽众[1] 晏斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木与建筑学院,宜昌443002

出　　处：《交通与运输》2017年第A01期215-218,共4页Traffic & Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51378121)

摘　　要：交通事故的发生都与人、车和道路环境3个因素有关,但这3个因素所包含的子因素较多,笼统进行分析可能有失偏颇,找不出事故发生的主要因素。以城市道路交通为对象,以车和道路环境下的车辆种类、路口形式、路面情况、车道类型和城市道路等级5个方面为观测指标,采用因子分析、灰色关联分析得出车辆种类是唯一的主成分,与事故发生率的关联度最高,车辆种类是最大的影响因素,最后用多元回归分析建立交通事故率与5个观测指标的多元线性回归模型。Traffic accidents are related to people, automobile and road environment factors, but general analysis may be biased, and unable to figure out the main factors of the accident, because of the three elements all contained in many factors. Based on the urban road construction, according to the five observations such as type of vehicle and road environments, junctions, road surface, lane type, using factor analysis and grey correlation analysis, this paper got： vehicle types is the only principal component, associated with the accident rate of the highest types of vehicles are the biggest factors. Finally using multivariate regression analysis, the multiple linear regression model between traffic accidents and five observations is established.

关 键 词：交通事故率 因子分析 灰色关联分析 多元线性回归模型 

分 类 号：U492[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]