保险发展、空间溢出与实体经济增长——基于空间面板杜宾模型的实证分析  

Insurance Development,Spatial Spillover,and the Growth of Real Economy in China——An SDM-based Empirical Analysis

作　　者：杨新顺[1] 强卫[1] 白斯元 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《保险研究》2017年第5期53-61,共9页Insurance Studies

摘　　要：本文基于我国2006~2015年30个省市的面板数据,运用空间自相关Moran’s I指数,检验我国保险发展与实体经济增长的空间自相关性,建立空间杜宾模型(SDM)分析保险发展对我国实体经济增长的影响情况。结果表明:我国实体经济发展存在明显的空间依赖性和空间溢出效应;保险发展与实体经济增长之间存在显著的正向影响,保险发展表现出显著的负向空间溢出效应;银行业与宏观调控对实体经济具有反向影响作用,但从空间溢出效应来看,具有正向影响;产业结构升级对实体经济发展具有正向影响,并产生负向空间溢出性。Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces and cities from 2006 to 2015, Moran＇ s I featuring spa- tial autocorrelation was used to test the spatial autocorrelation between insurance development and growth of the real economy in China. Next, the Spatial Dubin Model （SDM） was built to analyze the influence of China＇ s insurance development on growth of its real economy. Analysis results suggested a significant space dependency and space overflow effect of real economy development in China, and that the two were positively correlated. To be specific, in- surance development demonstrated a significant negative space overflow effect. This intensified inter-regional competition of the insurance industry and inhibited the development of inter-regional real economy. The banking industry and the macro-regulation had a negative influence on the real economy, but the influence was positive from the per- spective of the spatial overflow effect. Industrial structural upgrading had a positive influence on development of the real economy, and had a negative spatial overflow effect.

关 键 词：保险发展 实体经济 空间面板杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]