从价格承受能力看居民采暖“煤改气”——以北京市城乡为例  

Analysis of affordability on residents heating with coal to gas——A case study in urban and rural of Beijing

作　　者：刘应红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工集团公司发展计划部

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2017年第6期45-50,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：北方地区居民冬季采暖"煤改气"已成为当前雾霾治理的一个重要方向。本文采用收入支出比模型分析了当前条件下北京市城镇和农村居民的采暖气价承受能力,并与现行的阶梯气价进行了对比分析。结果表明,在当前气价条件下,采暖"煤改气"超出了农村居民的价格承受能力;考虑政府"煤改气"补贴并完成住宅节能改造后,燃气采暖支出在北京市各收入群体家庭可支配收入中所占的比例基本能控制在3.0%以内。为顺利推进居民采暖"煤改气"工作,需要政府、居民、供气企业三方共同努力,建议:1)政府要在推广"煤改气"的同时加强住宅节能改造,降低单位热负荷,同时要改变现有"大水漫灌"的补贴模式,提高补贴效率;2)居民要转变观念,提高对"煤改气"的认识,并培养科学用暖的习惯;3)供气企业要加强基础设施建设,提高经营效率,努力降低气源获得成本和配气成本,保障安全供应。As the air pollution control in northern region stepped into a crucial stage, coal to gas on residents heating hasbecome an important direction of the current smog governance. The paper introduces a model of income-expenditure ratio to analyzethe residents＇ affordability of gas-heating both in urban and rural of Beijing under current conditions, and compares ＆ analyzes themwith the existing ladder gas prices. As a result, heating with coal to gas is beyond the affordability of rural residents. Consideringgovernment subsidies and energy-saving reconstruction of residence, expenditure on gas-heating could be controlled within 3.0% ofthe disposable income of Beijing residents. It suggests that： 1） the government should spread coal to gas, strengthen energy-savingreconstruction of residence, lower unit thermal load, change the current subsidy mode for all changers, and increase allowanceefficiency; 2） inhabitants should change their old concepts, and develop more scientific heating habit to motivate themselves to burngas instead of coal; 3） gas enterprises should accelerate the infrastructure construction, improve the management efficiency, try toreduce the acquisition and distribution cost, and secure the safe supply.

关 键 词：天然气 煤改气 北京 价格承受能力 收入支出比 

分 类 号：F299.24[经济管理—国民经济]