信贷约束、房价波动传导机制及特征识别  

Credit Constraint, House Price Fluctuation Transmission Mechanism and Feature Identification

作　　者：潘海峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国经济与管理研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第14期152-156,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：教育部科技创新工程重大项目培育资金项目(708015);安徽省高教提升计划人文社会科学研究项目(TSSK2014B25);安徽工程大学金融工程研发中心开放基金项目(JRGCKF201505)

摘　　要：文章基于信贷约束条件,构建包含信贷市场、货币市场、房产市场、生产市场及宏观经济等多因素的动态一般均衡模型,分析了房价传导机制;以我国2005年7月至2015年10月的数据为样本,对我国的房价进行拟合,建立了普通最优模型、信贷加速效应模型、信贷门限模型、危机前模型和危机后模型等,对比分析了信贷约束加速效应、门限特征、分段特征等;对房价波动进行了脉冲响应分析,考察了信贷约束、产出、通胀、货币政策对房价的冲击影响。On the basis of the credit constraint condition, this paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model including a variety of factors such as credit market, monetary market, real estate market, production market and macro-economy, and analyzes the transmission mechanism of the house price. Selecting the data from July 2005 to October 2015 as samples to fit the house price in China, the paper puts forward a general optimal model, credit acceleration effect model, credit threshold model, pre-crisis mod- el, post-crisis model, etc. The paper also compares and analyzes the credit constraint acceleration effect, threshold feature and segmentation feature. Finally the paper makes an impulse response analysis on the house price fluctuation, and examines the im- pact of credit constraint, output, inflation, monetary policy on the house prices.

关 键 词：房价 一般均衡 信贷约束 拟合 波动 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]