河西走廊泥石流灾害危险性评价及影响因子分析  

Hazard assessment and influence factors analysis of debris flow disaster in Hexi Corridor

作　　者：田丰[1] 张军[1,2] 冉有华[3] TIAN Feng ZHANG Jun RAN Youhua(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China Research Center for Water-saving Agriculture in Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070, China Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省节水农业工程技术中心,甘肃兰州730070 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2017年第3期139-146,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(1506RJZA003;1606RJZA076);中国科学院兰州分院院地合作项目(Y52BK51001)~~

摘　　要：河西走廊是丝绸之路经济带的黄金段和纽带,在国家"一带一路"战略中区位特殊,地位重要。以甘肃省地质灾害报告数据为基础,结合河西走廊地形地貌、水文、土壤和植被等情况,选取高程标准差、坡度、表层0~100 cm内的粘粒和砂粒含量、5-10月降雨量、河网密度和植被覆盖度等7个环境变量,利用Arc GIS技术建立了泥石流沟发育样点和环境变量空间分布图层,构建了河西走廊泥石流灾害危险性最大熵(Max Ent)分布模型,预测了河西走廊泥石流灾害危险性分布概率P,划分危险性等级,完成了河西走廊泥石流灾害危险性评价制图,并分析了各环境变量对P的贡献率和响应曲线。结果表明:P为0~0.95;其中,极高度危险区(0.5≤P≤0.95)面积约2.57万km^2,约占河西走廊总面积的9.92%;高度危险区(0.2≤P<0.5)面积约4.11万km^2,约占河西走廊总面积的15.87%;中度危险区(0.09≤P<0.2)约4.90万km^2,约占河西走廊总面积的18.92%;低度危险区(0≤P<0.09)约14.32万km^2,约占河西走廊总面积的55.29%。Hexi corridor is the golden section and link of silk road economic belt, has special location and important status. Based on geological disaster report data of Gansu Province and combined with landform, hydrology, soil and vegetation of Hexi Corridor, this paper selects seven environmental variables including Elevation Standard Devia- tion, Slope, content of clay and sand partictes in 0 - 100 cm deep surface, precipitation from May to October, river network density and vegetation coverage, builds spatial distribution layer of debris flow gutter development samples and environment variables pattern by GIS technology, constructs debris flow disaster hazard MaxEnt distribution model of Hexi Corridor, predicts debris flow disaster hazard distribution probability（P） of Hexi Corridor, divides hazard levels, completes mapping debris flow disaster hazard assessment for Hexi corridor, and analyzes contribu- tion rate of each environmental variable to distribution probability P and corresponding response curves. Result shows that ： the values P are between 0 - 0.95, the areas of extremely high level hazard zone （0.5 ≤ P ≤ 0.95 ）,high level hazard zone（0.2 ≤ P 〈 0.5 ）, middle level hazard zone（0.09 ≤ P 〈 0.2） and low level hazard zone（0 ≤ P 〈0.09） are about 2.57 × 10^4km2 ,4.11 × 10^4km^2, 4.90 × 10^4km^2 and 14.32 × 10^4km^2 ,respectively and account for 9.92% and 15.87%, 18.92% and 55.29% of the total area of Hexi Corridor.

关 键 词：泥石流灾害 危险性 评价 MAXENT ARCGIS 河西走廊 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]