基于HEC-HMS的郴江流域山洪预报研究  

Research on forecast of mountain flood in Chenjiang River Basin based on HEC-HMS model

作　　者：胡国华[1] 陈肖[1] 于泽兴[1] 顾庆福[2] 李彤[1] 邹杨[1] HU Guohua CHEN Xiao YU Zexing GU Qingfu LI Tong ZOU Yang(School of Hydraulic Engineering, Changsha University of Science ＆ Technology, Changsha 410114, China Hunan Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Surveying, Changsha 410007, China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]湖南省水文水资源勘测局,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2017年第3期147-155,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：湖南省重大水利科技计划项目(2012-177-10);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2015B361)~~

摘　　要：山洪灾害常造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡,基于地理信息系统和遥感技术的水文模型集成系统,为无资料地区的山洪预报提供了新的思路。在对2006-2013年降雨特征进行统计的基础上,以自然分水线划分子流域,利用遥感影像和GIS技术提取流域信息,采用HEC-HMS半分布式水文模型进行郴江流域山洪预报。结果表明:对模型验证期的10场洪水,洪峰流量和洪量相对误差均在20%以内,峰现时差在2 h以内的占比为80%,Nash效率系数在0.7以上的占比为80%,模型模拟效果较好;相较于多峰洪水,单峰洪水的模拟效果更好。不同雨型的模拟分析结果表明,D型降水洪峰和洪量的模拟效果较好,而E型降水模拟流量过程与实测拟合较好。Mountain flood has caused serious economic losses and casualties. The integration of hydrological model system based on GIS and remote sensing technology provide a new way of thinking for mountain flood forecast of the areas without data. Based on statistics of characteristics of rainfall events from 2006 to 2013, this paper uses the semi-distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS to simulate mountain flood process in Chengjiang River Basin. The study area was divided into a set of sub-basins according to natural watershed line and topographic information was extracted using remote-sensing image and GIS technology. The results show that all of the 10 floods in validation periods has a relative error of peak flow of less than 20%, all has a relative error of runoff amount of less than 20%, 80% has a error time of peak flow within 2 hours and 80% has a Nash efficiency coefficient of greater than 0. 7. The simulated flow agrees well with the observed flow at the outlet of Chengjiang Basin. Compared to muhi-peak floods, the model shows a better performance in rainfloods simulation for uni-peak floods. Analyzing the simulation results for different rainfall patterns, it simulates better for D-type precipitation in peak flow and runoff amount and has a higher fitting degree of flood orocess for E-tvoe orecinitation.

关 键 词：HEC-HMS模型 GIS 郴江流域 山洪预报 降雨类型 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]