库水位下降及降雨作用下麻柳林滑坡稳定性评价与预测  

Stability Evaluation and Prediction of Maliulin Landslide under Reservoir Water Level Decline and Rainfall

作　　者：郭子正[1] 殷坤龙[1] 唐扬[2] 黄发明[2] 付小林[3] Guo Zizheng Yin Kunlong Tang Yang Huang Faming Fu Xiaolin(a. Faculty of Engineering 1b. Geological Wuhan 430074, Chin 2. China Institute of Survey, China University of Geosciences （Wuhan）, Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)地质调查研究院,武汉430074 [3]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081

出　　处：《地质科技情报》2017年第4期260-265,270,共7页Geological Science and Technology Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41572292);中国地质调查局项目(0431203)

摘　　要：研究库水位升降与降雨影响下三峡库区堆积层滑坡的稳定性变化特征,并对其进行预测具有重要意义。建立了三峡库区万州区麻柳林滑坡的地质模型,基于P-Ⅲ型分布曲线对降雨重现期进行分析后共设置了12种计算工况;利用Geostudio软件对滑坡稳定性进行了模拟。结果表明:库水位下降和降雨入渗均会使滑坡稳定性系数减小,不仅变化幅度与库水位下降速率和降雨强度均为正相关关系,而且滑坡稳定性对于降雨条件更加敏感。2种最不利工况条件下的滑坡稳定性系数分别为0.95和0.949,此时滑坡失稳破坏。利用灰色模型对最不利工况下的滑坡稳定性系数进行了滚动预测,其MAPE为2.86%,MSE为0.033,预测精度优于多项式模型。It is of great significance to research stability change characteristics of debris landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir region under the effect of reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall and predict the stability.Geological model of Maliulin landslide was established in Wanzhou District of Three Gorges Reservoir region,and 12 work conditions were set after the analysis of repetition period of rainfall on the basis of P-Ⅲ distribution curve.Simulation of landslide stability was carried out by using Geostudio software.The results indicate that the reservoir water level declines and rainfall infiltration decreases.The stability coefficient of landslide and amplitude of variation has a positive correlation with both rate of declining of reservoir water level and rainfall intensity.The response of the stability to the rainfall is more sensitive.The stability coefficient is 0.95 and 0.949 in the two most negative work conditions with instability and failure of landslide.The gray model was used to carry out rolling forecast of the stability coefficient of landslide on the most negative work condition.The MAPE is 2.86% and MSE is 0.033.The accuracy of gray model is better than that of the polynomial model.

关 键 词：库水位下降 降雨 滑坡稳定性 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]