发挥优胜劣汰机制中国贸易强国路径研究  

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Survival of the Fittest and the Road to a Trade Power

作　　者：王聪[1] 白雪祺 张军令[1] Wang Cong Bai Xueqi Zhang Junling(School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China Faculty of Pre-School Education, ShanXi Pre-School Normal University)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029 [2]陕西学前师范学院学前教育系,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《上海经济》2017年第4期18-25,共8页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：商务部重大课题"迈向贸易强国的战略路径研究"

摘　　要：当前全球贸易政策不确定性不断增加,在这一背景下如何实现从贸易大国到贸易强国的转变是中国需要应对的现实问题。本文认为,发挥优胜劣汰机制是我国应对外部贸易政策不确定性,实现贸易强国的重要路径,可以帮助中国应对外部经济形势的不利局面,支撑我国经济转型升级。本文首先分析了中国实现贸易强国道路上遇到的困境以及应对的出路。接下来,从理论上分析了优胜劣汰的内涵、优胜劣汰与中国对外贸易之间的关系。然后,分析了对外贸易中发挥优胜劣汰效应的重要性。再次,指出中国实现优胜劣汰面临的问题,通过使用中国工业企业数据,测算优胜劣汰对中国制造业劳动生产率增长的贡献发现,中国制造业优胜劣汰对劳动生产率增长的贡献呈现下降趋势,2007-2010年只贡献了不足1%,显著低于斯洛文尼亚等转型经济体。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议,即我国需重视对内改革,产业政策应重视竞争,并顺应全球贸易分工趋势,通过对内改革保证我国的开放质量,从而保证优胜劣汰机制的顺利实现。The current global trade policy uncertainty continues to increase, How to realize the transition from a big country to a powerful country in foreign trade is a realistic problem. This paper argues that, playing the survival of the fittest mechanism is an important path of realization of foreign trade power, The process of foreign trade from large to strong can deal with external trade policy uncertainty, and help our country to cope with the adverse situation of the external economic situation, Support China＇s economic transformation and upgrading. First, this paper analyzes the difficulties encountered in the way of realizing trade power and the way out. Then, This paper theoretically analyzes The connotation of the survival of the fittest, and The relationship between the survival of the fittest and the foreign trade of our country. Third, the paper argue the importance of the survival of the fittest in the foreign trade. Third, we point out the challenges that our country has faced in the process of achieving survival of the fittest, By using Chinese Industrial Enterprises database, and measuring the contribution of the survival of the fittest to the growth of labor productivity in China＇s manufacturing industry, we find the contribution of the survival of the fittest showed a downward trend, 2007-2010 contributing only less than 1% which significantly lower than Slovenia and other transitional economies. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, That is our country needs to attach importance to internal reform, Industrial policy should pay attention to competition, and conform to the trend of Global trade specialization, guarantee the opening quality of our country with internal reform, so as to ensure the smooth realization of the survival of the fittest.

关 键 词：贸易强国 优胜劣汰 对外贸易 对内改革 贸易政策不确定性 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]