基于三参量威布尔分布的潜在震源区强震危险性估计  

Estimation of the Strong Earthquake Risk in Potential Seismic Source Based on 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution

作　　者：刘哲[1] 李琦[2] 任鲁川[1] 田建伟[1] 张锟[1] Liu Zhe Li Qi Ren Luchuan Tian Jianwei Zhang Kun(Institute of Disaster Prevention, Beijing 101601, China Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071, China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院,北京101601 [2]中国地震局地震研究所,武汉430071

出　　处：《震灾防御技术》2017年第2期346-353,共8页Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41276020);中央高校基本科研业务费(ZY20160311);中央高校基本科研业务费(ZY20160312)

摘　　要：本文提出了一种基于三参量威布尔分布模型估计潜在震源区强震危险性的方法。选择日本东海-南海地震带为潜在震源区,分别基于强震发震时间间隔服从二参量和三参量的威布尔分布,估计该区强震危险性,结果表明三参量威布尔分布的拟合效果优于二参量威布尔分布。选择马尼拉海沟俯冲带为潜在震源区,基于三参量威布尔分布估计该区强震危险性,结果显示未来10、30和50年该区强震(M≧7.5)复发概率分别为62%、82%和89%,最短发震时间间隔估计为1.70年。We propose a method to estimate the strong earthquake risk in the potential seismic source area based on 3-parameter Weibull distribution in this paper. We choose the Tokai-Nankai seismic zone as a case study area to estimate the strong earthquake risk on the assumption that the strong earthquake occurrence time interval in that area coincides with the 2-parameter or 3-parameter Weibull distribution respectively. The results show that the 3-parameter Weibull distribution is superior to 2-parameter Weibull distribution for estimation of strong earthquake risk. We also estimate the strong earthquake risk in the Manila Trench subduction zone based on 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the results show that the strong earthquake （M≥7.5） recurrence probability in 10, 30 and 50 years are 62%, 82%, 89% respectively and the estimated shortest recurrence time interval is 1.70 years.

关 键 词：潜在震源区 强震危险性估计 威布尔分布 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]