基于模糊失效概率的输气站场收球区定量风险评价研究  

Quantitative Assessment of Risk in Receiving Ball Area of Natural Gas Station Based on Fuzzy Failure Probability

作　　者：李平[1] 张锦伟 税旭东 

机构地区：[1]中国石化川气东送天然气管道有限公司,湖北武汉430020 [2]中国市政工程西南设计研究总院有限公司燃气热力设计研究院,四川成都610081

出　　处：《石油工业技术监督》2017年第7期56-60,共5页Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry

摘　　要：针对目前国内缺乏输气站场风险因素客观失效概率的问题,提出采用模糊失效概率来确定输气站场风险因素的失效概率。该方法以专家判断为基础,采用模糊集理论将专家判断结果转化为模糊失效概率。以人员受伤面积作为失效后果评价指标,从而计算出风险值,并提出风险等级划分方法。最后对达化输气站收球区进行风险评价,其评价结果与实际风险程度一致。In view of the lack of objective failure probability of risk factors in gas transmission stations at present in China, it is proposed to determine the failure probability of risk factors in the gas stations using fuzzy failure probability. The method is based on expert judgment, and uses fuzzy set theory to transform the expert judgment result into fuzzy failure probability. Taking the injured area of personnel as the evaluation index of the failure consequence, the risk value is calculated and the risk grade division method is put forward. Finally, the risk of the receiving ball area of Dahua gas station is evaluated, and the evaluation result is consistent with the actual risk level.

关 键 词：输气站场 风险区块 定量风险评价 模糊失效概率 失效后果 

分 类 号：TE974[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]