部队血源及性传播疾病风险评估指标体系的建立  

Establishment of an Assessment Index System for Blood and Sexually Transmitted Dsiseases in Military Troops

作　　者：高东旗[1] 于光艳[1] 李宏[1] 杨会锁[1] 张玉国[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京军区疾病预防控制中心,北京100042

出　　处：《解放军预防医学杂志》2017年第6期547-550,共4页Journal of Preventive Medicine of Chinese People's Liberation Army

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技重大专项(No.2013ZX10004203-001-005);军队"十二五"重点课题(No.BWS11J060)

摘　　要：目的构建部队血源及性传播疾病发生的风险评估指标体系,为制定科学有效的预防控制策略提供理论依据。方法对相关部队血源及性传播疾病资料和已有研究成果进行分析,运用德尔菲法确定血源及性传播疾病发生的风险因素;然后通过层次分析法确定风险因素的权重;最后应用多指标综合评分法计算风险概率,建立部队血源及性传播疾病发生的风险评估指标体系。结果经过2轮德尔菲专家的问卷调查,最终确立一级指标(目标层)1个,二级指标(准则层)6个,三级指标(指标层)32个。进一步通过层次分析法进行归一化处理,初步建立了部队血源及性传播疾病风险因素评估指标体系。体系中所占权重较高的因素为窗口期检测不出病原标志物、发病初期症状不明显成为潜在传染源、部队对血源及性传播疾病患者及时报告等。结论本研究建立的部队血源及性传播疾病风险评估指标体系可以为部队预防血源及性传播疾病提供理论依据,并提出防控建议。Objective To assess the risk of blood and sexually transmitted diseases in military troops and provide data for the development of strategies for scientific and effective prevention and control of disease. Methods First of.all, the information and available research results of blood and sexually transmitted diseases by related institutions were analyzed, and the risk factors of blood and sexually transmitted diseases were determined using Delphi method. Then, the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was applied in determining weights of risk factors. The multi-index comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the risk probability and establish the risk assessment index system for blood and sexually transmitted diseases. Results After two rounds of Delphi expert questionnaires, an index system was established, which included one index of the first class （target lay- er） ,six indexes of the second-class （the criterion layer） and thirty-two indexes of the third class （the index layer）. Further normalization was achieved through the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） so that a risk assessment index system for blood and sexually transmitted diseases in military troops was established. Factors of high weight in the system included inability to detect pathogenic markers in the window period of the disease, potential sources of infections because of the mild symptoms at the onset of disease, and timely reporting of patients with blood and sexually transmitted diseases in military troops. Conclusion This study has established a risk assessment index system for blood and sexually transmitted diseases in the army, which can help make rec- ommendations on disease control and prevention.

关 键 词：军事人员 德尔菲技术 层次分析法 血源及性传播疾病 风险评估 

分 类 号：R821[医药卫生—临床医学]