渐进利率市场化改革是否打破了“利率限制铁律”？--来自中国农户田野调查的证据  

Does the Interest Rate Liberalization Reform Change“The Iron Law of Interest Rate Restriction”?

作　　者：许月丽[1,2] 李文[2] 肖奎喜[1] XU Yueli LI Wen XIAO Kuixi(School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studie School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Science and Technology Universit)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院,广东广州510006 [2]浙江理工大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《金融研究》2017年第6期50-63,共14页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“贷款利率市场化对农村非正规金融的市场结构与市场绩效影响研究”(批准号:14BJY103)的资助

摘　　要：本文首先拓展了不对称信息条件下金融机构信贷决策的理论分析框架,提出了随着利率市场化的推进,农村金融机构边际信贷供给决策,是在利率提高所带来的风险补偿效应、借款人结构类型效应和信息不对称内生技术处理能力效应三者之间的权衡,并据此提出了利率市场化改革是否会打破在利率限制条件下,富裕农户会受益更多的"利率限制铁律"的假说。在此基础之上,利用田野调查的样本数据,本文的实证部分从机制与结论两个方面,对假说进行了经验验证。结果发现,农村利率市场化改革确实对打破"利率限制铁律"具有显著的作用,但是由于三种不同效应在利率市场化阶段的此消彼长,因此这一作用是动态和阶段性的。最后,论文提出应当阶段性地看待利率市场化改革的作用,以及强化农村金融市场的竞争具有重要的政策含义。Based on a credit rationing model, we put forward a hypothesis -whether the interest rate liberalization reform has broke ＂the iron law of interest rate restriction＂ that means rich farmers benefit more under restricted interest rate. Then, in the empirical chapters, using the data from the field survey, we respectively test the hypothesis＇ s mechanisms and conclusions. The empirical results show that interest rate liberalization reform does have a significant role in breaking ＂the iron law of interest rate restriction＂ in rural areas, however, due to the shift of the three effects during the process of interest rate liberalization, this role is dynamic and periodical. Finally, this paper gives an important policy implication that it is very necessary to periodically look at the role of interest rate liberalization reform and to strengthen the competition in rural financial market.

关 键 词：利率限制铁律 信贷配给 利率市场化改革 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]