人口结构对住房需求的影响研究——以重庆市为例  

Research on the Impact of Population Structure on Housing Demand:Taking Chongqing as an example

作　　者：陈西婵[1,2] CHEN Xichan(Rongzhi College, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400030, China School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学融智学院,重庆40030 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《建筑经济》2017年第7期57-61,共5页Construction Economy

基　　金：重庆社会科学规划一般项目"制度变迁理论下的重庆房产税税制优化研究"(2014YB55031);国家社会科学基金项目"房产税改革的财富分配效应与制度创新研究"(12XJY026)

摘　　要：根据重庆市2000~2013年的统计数据,应用Granger因果关系检验和因子分析法考察重庆市人口结构对住房需求的影响。研究显示,人口结构尤其是老龄化显著影响住房需求,"经济发展潜力"(人口规模因素、劳动力人口因素、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入度量)因子每增加一个单位,住房需求将增加0.769%,"老龄化"因子每上升一个单位,住房需求将增加0.901%。According to the statistical data of Chongqing from 2000 to 2013, the paper uses granger causality test and factor analysis to investigate the impact of population structure on housing demand in Chongqing. The results shows that the population structure, especially the aging significantly affects housing demand. ＂economic development potential＂ （by population size factor, labor force population factors, per capita disposable income of urban households） factor for each rise of a unit, housing demand will increase by 0.769%, ＂aging＂ factor for each rise of a unit, housing demand will increase 0.901%.

关 键 词：人口结构 老龄化 住房需求 GRANGER因果关系 因子分析 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]