中小板公司的业绩预告质量问题  

The Quality of Mandatory Management Earnings Forecasts of Small and Medium Enterprises

作　　者：宋云玲[1] 罗玫[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,010021 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,100084

出　　处：《会计研究》2017年第6期24-30,共7页Accounting Research

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金(LY16G020008);内蒙古大学2016年引进高层次人才科研启动金的支持;国家自然科学基金项目"中国股市是否相信上市公司发布的业绩预告"(71173125);清华大学自主科研基金(20151080387)的资助

摘　　要：中小企业板上市公司从2007年起执行比主板公司更为严格的强制性预告制度,即所有公司需要在第三季度报告中(10月份)对全年的经营业绩进行预告。本文搜集深沪两市A股主板和中小板上市公司在2007年至2013年度发布的首次业绩预告,系统地研究了中小板公司相对主板公司的业绩预告质量。结果表明,无论中小板公司的预期利润相比去年的变化幅度,业绩预告偏差和误差都显著高于主板公司在年度结束后1月份发布的业绩预告,质量更差。相比主板公司在年度结束前10月份发布的业绩预告,中小板公司的业绩预告质量不相伯仲,质量同样低。本文结果表明将主板的强制业绩预告制度推广到所有中小板公司未能得到高质量的业绩预告,也没有规避主板公司过早在10月份发布业绩预告的负面后果。From 2007,all the firms listed on the Small and Medium Enterprise Board are required to make annual earnings forecast in the third quarterly report typically issued in October.The rule covers a much wider range of firms than the regulation imposed on firms listed on the Main Board.We compare the quality of management earnings forecast of firms listed on Small and Medium Enterprise Board and the Main Board over the period of 2007 to 2013.The results show that the forecasts issued by small firms have significantly higher bias and error than those issued by big firms in January after the fiscal year-end.Compared to the forecasts issued by big firms in October before the fiscal year-end,those issued by small firms have again higher bias but similarly low accuracy.The findings highlight the negative consequences of imposing strict disclosure rules on small and medium Enterprises,and consequences of mandatory forecasts in October.

关 键 词：业绩预告制度 业绩预告质量 中小板公司 主板公司 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]