基于深度学习的区域生态安全时空模拟与预测  

Spatio-temporal Simulation and Prediction of Regional Ecological Security Based on Deep Learning

作　　者：陈工[1] 李琦[1,2] 金玲艳[1] 梁贺明[1] Hamed Karimian 莫玉琴[1] CHEN Gong LI Qi JIN Lingyan LIANG Heming Hamed Karimian MO Yuqin(Digital Earth Studio, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China Smart City Research Center, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学数字地球工作室,北京100871 [2]北京大学智慧城市研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《地球信息科学学报》2017年第7期915-923,共9页Journal of Geo-information Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC20B06)

摘　　要：区域作为人类、自然、社会共同作用和互相影响的复杂系统,对区域进行生态量化建模与模拟仿真,是实现区域可持续发展战略的关键。传统机器学习方法对区域生态系统建模取得了一定的成果,但难以确定学习特征和实现时空模拟。深度学习不需事先确定训练特征,具有优异的特征学习能力,能够提高模型预测精度,因此利用深度学习进行建模具有显著优势。本文使用植被净初级生产力(NPP)、气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)和人口格网数据,充分利用深度学习的优点,采用最优深度神经网络时空模拟,得到了河南省2007-2014年3 km分辨率的生态赤字空间分布图和河南省2015-2020年的生态赤字时间预测结果并进行分析,为区域生态的科学管理和建设供科学依据和参考。A region is a complex system of human, nature and society. The quantitative modeling and simulation of the ecology of the region are the key to realize the strategy of regional sustainable development. Traditional methods of machine learning have made some achievements in the modeling of regional ecosystems, but it is difficult to determine the learning characteristics and realize does not need to determine the training characteristics and the simulation of time and space. Deep learning has excellent feature learning ability and higher accuracy of model prediction. In this paper, we used the net primary productivity （NPP）, aerosol optical thickness （AOD） and population grid data to make full use of the advantages of depth learning. The optimal deep neural network is used to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of Henan Province. The spatial distribution map of ecological deficit and the forecast of ecological deficit in Henan province from 2015 to 2020 are generated and analyzed. Our work provides relevant basic scientific support and reference for the scientific management and construction of regional ecology.

关 键 词：深度学习 机器学习 生态承载力 生态赤字 时空模拟 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]