基于AnnAGNPS模型的苇子沟流域非点源污染模拟研究  

Simulation of non-point source pollution in Weizigou watershed with AnnAGNPS model

作　　者：涂宏志[1,2] 侯鹰[1] 陈卫平[1] TU Hong-zhi HOU Ying CHEN Wei-ping(State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《农业环境科学学报》2017年第7期1345-1352,共8页Journal of Agro-Environment Science

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2014ZX07201-011-005;2015ZX07206-006-02);中国科学院科技服务网络计划(KFJ-EW-ZY-004)~~

摘　　要：采用连续分布式水文模型Ann AGNPS(Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Model),耦合GIS技术,对饮马河下游苇子沟流域2009—2015年非点源污染进行了定量模拟,同时用同步水质监测数据检验了该模型在苇子沟流域的适用性。结果表明,该模型对径流、总氮模拟效果较好,对总磷模拟效果较差。在日尺度上,模型对小型降雨事件径流量模拟值偏低,而对暴雨事件模拟值偏高;月尺度上,总氮、总磷的年内变化与降雨量的年内变化一致,5—8月雨季的非点源污染负荷占全年的80%以上;年尺度上,2009—2015年总氮、总磷污染负荷平均值分别为22 295.28 kg和7 085.00 kg,且年际变化趋势一致。降雨量与总氮负荷的Spearman相关系数为0.93,与总磷负荷的相关系数为0.92,且均达到极显著水平(P<0.01),说明年降雨量的变化直接影响流域全年总氮、总磷污染负荷的变化。总氮和总磷负荷的空间分布具有很高的相似性,总体上总氮、总磷单位面积负荷量在流域西北部区域较低,而在流域中下游区域较高。In this study, the Ann AGNPS（Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source） model was used to simulate NPS loads from the Weizigou watershed from 2009 to 2015. Water quality monitoring data were used to evaluate the performance and suitability of Ann AGNPS.The results showed that the predictions of the runoff and total nitrogen（TN）load for the Weizigou watershed by Ann AGNPS were reasonable, while the prediction of total phosphorus（TP）showed relatively large uncertainties. The model generally underestimated runoff caused by low rainfalls, while overestimated runoff resulting from heavy rainfalls. The changes of TN and TP loads over months had similar trends with the change of rainfall. More than 80% of the annual NPS load occurred in rainy-season from May to August. Annual average TN and TP load from the Weizigou watershed from 2009 to 2015 were 22 295.28 kg and 7 085.00 kg, respectively, and they had the similar changing trend over years. The Spearman correlation coefficients were 0.93 and 0.92 for the correlations between TN and rainfall and between TP and rainfall, respectively（P〈0.01）. The modeling results on the annual scale showed that the change of total pollutant load was strongly influenced by the change of rainfall in the Weizigou watershed. TN and TP loadings had similar spatial distribution characteristics in the study area. The loadings of TN and TP were generally higher in the downstream areas than in the north-western areas of the Weizigou watershed.

关 键 词：ANNAGNPS 非点源污染 苇子沟流域 总氮 总磷 不确定性 

分 类 号：X592[环境科学与工程—环境工程]