基于灰色预测模型的卫星测控系统维护需求分析  

An Analysis of the Maintenance Demand of Satellite Measurement and Control System Based on Gray Forecasting Model

作　　者：余庆丰[1] 戴强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军总参谋部61764部队

出　　处：《温州职业技术学院学报》2017年第2期56-58,67,共4页Journal of Wenzhou Polytechnic

摘　　要：针对卫星测控系统复杂、维护需求定位难的问题,提出建立灰色预测模型,对各分系统五年内的故障发生情况进行预测,从而为制定卫星测控系统维护计划提供重要依据。测试结果表明,灰色预测模型有效,可根据预测结果提供卫星测控各分系统最佳维护时机。Given the complexity of satellite measurement and control system, and the difficulty in maintaining the demand for positioning, a grey prediction model is put forward in this paper to forecast the failure of each sub- system within five years, so as to provide an important basis for establishing the maintenance plan for the satellite measurement and control system. The test result shows that the grey prediction model is effective, and it can provide the best maintenance time for each sub-system on the basis of the predication results.

关 键 词：卫星测控系统 维护需求 灰色预测模型 平均无故障时间 

分 类 号：P123.46[天文地球—天体测量]