山东省农业干旱脆弱性区划研究  

Frangibility Zoning of Agricultural Drought in Shandong Province

作　　者：马丽[1] 张熙[1] 楚鹏[2] 李芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省济宁市气象局,济宁272000 [2]山东省济宁市科学技术情报研究所,济宁272000

出　　处：《气象科技》2017年第3期535-541,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：选取山东省17个地级市为研究对象,根据影响山东农业旱灾的自然环境、经济环境、社会环境3方面因素确定了指标体系,构建了山东省农业干旱脆弱性区划层次分析模型,建立了判断矩阵,对山东省农业干旱脆弱性情况作了评估研究,并绘制出山东省17地市农业干旱脆弱性区划图。结果表明:在2000—2013年的14年间,山东省农业干旱脆弱性评价为不脆弱的城市有5个,轻微脆弱的城市有4个,脆弱的城市有4个,强脆弱的城市有3个,极端脆弱的城市有1个。山东省农业干旱脆弱性空间分布格局,全省大致是东南与西北方向低,中部与西南方向高,脆弱性区划的结果反映出山东省农业干旱风险程度的地域性差异,脆弱性较高的地市应作为农业干旱灾害防御的重点区域。Selecting the 17 cities in Shandong Province as research objects, the index system is determined by three factors of affecting agricultural droughts in Shandong Province： natural environment, economic environment, and social environment. The model of agricultural drought frangibility zoning is constructed, and the judgment matrix for Shandong Province is established. Agricultural drought frangibility assessment studies in Shandong Province are conducted, and the frangibility zoning chart of agriculture drought for 17 cities/prefectures in Shandong Province. The results show that from 2000 to 2013, there were 5 non-frangible cities, 4 slight frangible ones, 4 frangible ones, 3 seriously frangible ones, 1 extremely serious frangible one in fragile rating in Shandong Province. Overall, the spatial distribution pattern of agricultural drought frangibility in Shandong Province is roughly lower in southeast and northwest, higher in central and southwest. The frangibility zoning results reflect the regional differences of agricultural drought risk degree in Shandong Province, and the higher frangibility cities should be as the key area of agricultural drought disaster prevention.

关 键 词：农业 干旱 脆弱性 区划 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]