人口分布与经济增长的倒U型关系:理论与检验——中国256个城市空间面板数据实证:2001-2014  

作　　者：曾永明[1,2] 张利国[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学鄱阳湖生态经济研究院 [2]江西财经大学

出　　处：《企业经济》2017年第7期141-150,共10页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：江西省社会科学"十三五"规划基金项目"空间异质性视角下江西精准扶贫与农村人口发展研究"(项目编号:16SH11);中国博士后基金面上项目"气候敏感区农村人口对气候变化的响应机制及发展路径研究"(项目编号:2016M602080);国家社会科学基金重大项目子课题"长江经济带建设战略引领下沿江地区经济发展路径研究"(项目编号:2015YZD16)

摘　　要：人口分布异质性和经济增长异质性是普遍的空间现象。文章以空间异质性为切入点,强调空间视角在人口分布对经济增长影响研究中的作用。基于新古典增长理论,在考虑人口密度对经济增长的集聚效应和拥挤效应后,发现理论上两者存在倒"U"型的关系;基于空间计量分析,通过中国256个城市2001-2014的空间面板数据验证了人口密度与经济增长倒"U"型关系存在的事实。与此同时,本文发现传统相关议题研究存在缺乏空间视角、忽视空间自相关性而结论有失严谨性等不足,指出未来的研究不仅理论上需要考虑空间因素,实证方法上也应该考虑空间分析技术和空间计量方法,以消除空间依赖性的影响。本文认为,城市人口聚集或疏解是一个自然过程,特大城市人口调控在"疏"Both population distribution and economic growth heterogeneity are common spatial phenomenon. From this issue, this pa- per studies the effects of population distribution on economic growth based on spatial angle. After considering the clustering effects and crowding effects based on New Classical Growth theory, this paper finds that there is an inverted U curve relation between population density and economic growth; the evidence coming from the data of Chinese 256 cities from year 2001 to 2014 with Spatial Panel Data Model verifies that an inverted U curve relation between population density and economic growth really exists. This paper analyzes the shortcoming of ignoring the influence of spatial angle or spatial autocorrelation in previous studies. So in future, we should think more about spatial attribution in theoretical research and spatial analysis tech- nology as well as spatial econometrics in empirical research, with which the effects of spatial dependence could be eliminated in large extent. The policy significance of this study is that urban population aggregation or mitigation is a natural process, and the point of population management in megacity should be mitigating rather than controlling.

关 键 词：人口空间分布 空间依赖性 集聚与拥挤 倒“U”型关系 空间面板数据 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] F129.9