化工企业安全生产预警方法研究  

RESEARCH ON AN EARLY WARNING METHOD FOR THE WORK SAFETY IN A CHEMICAL ENTERPRISE

作　　者：张道斌[1] 曲福年[1] 程玉河[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家安全生产监督管理总局化学品登记中心,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《石油化工安全环保技术》2017年第1期1-4,33,共5页Petrochemical Safety and Environmental Protection Technology

摘　　要：以某炼化企业为例,提出了一种化工企业的安全生产预警方法。该方法首先要选择管理要素,明确安全生产预警指标,然后采用专家打分和层次分析法确定指标权重,通过模糊综合评价法对已确定权值的指标进行综合评价,得出化工企业安全生产预警指数。通过建立灰色预测模型,对企业未来的安全生产趋势进行预测。结论表明:企业应建立相应的预警制度,保障安全生产预警系统有效运行,通过积累历史数据对其进行不断优化,使之更加符合企业的安全生产态势。Taking one refinery as an example,this paper puts forward an early warning method for the work safety in a chemical enterprise. This method firstly selects management elements and makes early warning index for work safety clear. Then expert scoring and analytic hierarchy process are adopted to determine the index weight.By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,a comprehensive evaluation is made for the index with determined weights to obtain the early warning index for work safety in the chemical enterprise. Through establishing grey prediction model,this paper forecasts the trends of work safety in the enterprise. And the conclusions indicate that the enterprise should establish corresponding early warning system to guarantee the effective operation of the wok safety warning system. Through accumulation of historical data,the system is optimized continuously,making it more suitable for the enterprise 's work safety situation.

关 键 词：安全生产预警系统 模糊层次分析法 预警指数 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：TQ086[化学工程]