杭州地区人体舒适度对自然死亡人数的影响  

Influence of human body comfort degree on natural mortality in Hangzhou

作　　者：张青[1] 李颖 骆月珍[1] 郑文涛[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象服务中心,浙江杭州310017 [2]浙江省气象科学研究所,浙江杭州310008 [3]滨州市人民医院,山东滨州256610

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2017年第3期101-106,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：浙江省科技厅公益项目(2015C33055);浙江省气象局重点项目(2014ZD05)共同资助

摘　　要：选取涵盖温度、湿度和降水等要素的体感温度及人体舒适度等级划分方法,以杭州地区为研究对象,探讨1998年8月至2007年7月杭州地区人体舒适度对自然死亡人数及不同性别、年龄、典型疾病死亡人数的具体影响。结果表明:1998年8月至2007年7月杭州地区体感温度与自然死亡人数之间大致呈二次多项式分布,当体感温度约为25.5℃时日平均死亡人数达最低值,体感温度对死亡人数滞后影响以3—5 d滞后相关最显著。以36.51人为阈值,杭州地区死亡高峰日多出现冬季,偶尔出现在夏季,5月和10月人体舒适度等级最高。男女死亡人数与体感温度均呈显著的负相关关系,男性日平均死亡人数略高于女性,冷不舒适的影响高于热不舒适的影响。老年和中年死亡人数与体感温度均呈显著的负相关关系,且老年人对温度的敏感性最大,婴幼儿和少年、青年死亡人数受体感温度的影响较小,日平均死亡人数由高至低依次为老年、中年、青年、婴幼儿、少年。循环系统和呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与体感温度均呈显著的负相关关系,而体感温度与肿瘤死亡人数呈显著的正相关关系,日平均死亡人数由高至低依次为肿瘤、循环系统和呼吸系统疾病,但呼吸系统疾病对体感温度的变化较敏感。Based on a computational approach of apparent temperature involving influence factors such as temperature,humidity and precipitation,and a classification method of human body comfortableness level, the influence of human body comfort degree on the whole natural mortality as well as on the natural mortality of different genders,ages and typical diseases in Hangzhou from August of 1998 to July of 2007 were analyzed. The purpose of this study is to provide a reference to meteorological health services in Hangzhou. The results show that the relationship between apparent temperature and natural mortality can be expressed as a quadric polynomial function. When apparent temperature is about 25. 5 ℃, the number of daily mean mortality reaches a minimum but has a most significant lag correlation with apparent temperature of 3-5 d lag time. If we define daily mortality rate 36. 51 as a threshold,the mortality peak days occur most frequently in winter and occasionally in summer. The human body comfortableness level is the highest in May and October. Both male and female mortality have significantly negative correlations with apparent temperature. The daily mean mortality of male is just slightly higher than that of female,and the cold uncomfortableness has greater influence on the mortality rate than the hot uncomfortableness. A significantly negative correlation of apparent temperature is observed with both of natural mortality of middle and old ages,particularly for the latter. The variation of apparent temperature has little effect on infants, teenagers and youths. The daily mean mortality is the largest for the old,followed by the middle-age,y outh, infant,and teenager.Deaths owing to the respiratory and circulatory system diseases have a significantly negative correlation with apparent temperature,whereas deaths owing to cancer disease show an obviously positive correlation with apparent temperature.The daily mean mortality is mostly caused by cancer,followed by circulatory system diseases and respiratory system dise

关 键 词：人体舒适度 体感温度 自然死亡 气象健康服务 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]