人口城市化与环境污染的非线性回归——以合肥市为例  

Non-linear Regression of Population Urbanization and Environmental Pollution:A Case Study of Hefei

作　　者：王素凤[1] 王成杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学管理学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《徐州工程学院学报（社会科学版）》2017年第4期43-48,共6页Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究规划基金资助项目"城镇生态承载与产业集聚的作用机制与协同路径研究"(15YJA790060);高校优秀青年骨干人才国内外访学研修重点项目"新型城镇化背景下生态承载与产业集聚的协同机制研究"(gxfxZD2016130)

摘　　要：通过选取合肥市2007—2014年时间序列数据,利用客观赋权法对城市环境污染的六个指标进行权重处理,来探索城市化进程中人口城市化对城市环境污染的影响。基于数据平稳性检验结果,建立人口城市化与城市环境污染之间的非线性关系模型,发现二次回归模型拟合效果最好;且样本期内合肥城市环境污染强度系数随着人口城市化强度系数的增大而增大,表明二者之间存在强的正相关性。进一步的回归分析显示:人口城市化水平的提高对城市环境污染的影响较为突出;将结果与EKC曲线进行对比,指出样本期内未出现回归"拐点"的原因,并对如何实现未来合肥人口城市化和城市环境保护协同提出建议。By choosing the time series data from 2007 to 2014 in Hefei and using objective weighting method to calculate weights of 6 index of urban environmental pollution, this paper explores the impact of urbanization on urban environmental pollution under the background of urbanization. Based on the results of data stability test,a non-linear model of the relationship between population urbanization and urban environmental pollution is established; Quadratic regression model fits better and with the intensity coefficient of Hefei urban environmental pollution increases, the intensity coefficient of population urbanization also increases in the sample period, indicating that there is a strong positive correlation between the two variables. Further regression analysis shows that the impact between population urbanization and urban environmental pollution is prominent. Compared with the EKC curve,it points out the reason why there is no ＂inflection point＂ during the sample period. Finally,it puts forward some suggestions on how to realize the coordination of population urbanization and urban environmental protection in Hefei in the future.

关 键 词：人口城市化 城市环境 二次回归模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]