2016年以来大豆市场分析与后市展望  

Soybean Market since 2016 and Its Future Prospect

作　　者：殷瑞锋[1] 徐雪高[2] 冯学静[3] 

机构地区：[1]农业部信息中心,北京100125 [2]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,江苏南京210014 [3]北京市城乡经济信息中心,北京100192

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第6期9-13,共5页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2016年,受玉米面积调减、粮豆轮作补助试点等政策影响,全国大豆播种面积恢复增加至715.6万hm^2,较上年增加8.6%,其中面积增加主要集中在东北产区。由于内蒙古东部和黑龙江中西部在大豆生长关键期遭遇夏伏旱,该地区大豆单产下降明显。全国大豆总产量较上年增加8.2%。2016年,受洪涝灾害影响,阿根廷大豆减产,支撑CBOT大豆期货价格稳步上涨,大豆国内外价差较上年缩小。中国大豆进口量增加至8 323万t。展望后市,2016/17年度,南美、北美大豆主产国均增产,全球大豆供给充裕,预计2017年国际大豆价格将弱势运行,在天气和全球经济形势影响下会有震荡。受临储大豆拍卖预期和国际大豆价格弱势影响,预计后期国产大豆价格将保持稳定。In 2016, under the effects of maize acreage reduction and grain and soybean rotation subsidy pilot, soybean acreage increased to 7 156 thousand hectares in 2016, increased by 8.6 percent over the previous year, in which the northeastern China was the main increasing acreage region. Both the eastern Inner Mongolia and central-western Heilongjiang experienced drought during the critical period of soybean growth, which resulted to a significant decrease in the soybean yield. In general, China＇s soybean production in 2016 increased by 8.2 percent over the previous year. For the international market, soybean production in Argentina decreased mainly owning to the floods, which made the soybean futures price of CBOT increase, and then led the price gap of soybean at home and abroad to narrow compared to the previous year. China＇s soybean imports increased to83.23 million tons in 2016. Looking into the future, as soybean production will increase in the main producing countries of North America and South America, the global soybean supply will be abundant, international soybean price will go weak with shock according to the weather change and external economic situation. The domestic soybean price is expected to remain stable under the influences of soybean-temporary-stock auction expectation and weak price trend of international soybean.

关 键 词：大豆 播种面积 产量 价格 国内外市场 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]