分布式光伏发电的特性分析与预测方法综述  

A Review on Characteristic Analysis and Prediction Method of Distributed PV

作　　者：王洪坤[1,2] 葛磊蛟[1] 李宏伟[2] 迟福建[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院,天津市300072 [2]石河子大学机械电气工程学院,新疆维吾尔自治区石河子市832003 [3]国网天津市电力公司,天津市300055

出　　处：《电力建设》2017年第7期1-9,共9页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：广东绿色能源技术重点实验室(2008A060301002)

摘　　要：近年来光伏产业的迅猛发展,分布式光伏大规模推广应用已成为一种趋势。间歇性强的分布式光伏大量接入配电网,给配电网带来了电能质量、谐波等诸多问题,影响了电网的安全稳定运行,分布式光伏发电特性分析与出力预测是有效解决以上问题的重要基础。首先探讨国内外分布式光伏的发展现状;其次,对分布式光伏出力特性、预测方法、预测软件的最新国内外研究进行评述;最后,探讨未来研究的重点内容,以期为我国分布式光伏的推广应用提供建议。With the rapid development of photovoltaic（PV）industry in recent years,the application of the large-scale distributed PV has become a trend.A large number of distributed PV with strong intermittent access to the distribution network causes many problems to the distribution network,such as power quality,harmonic and so on,which affects the safe and stable operation of power grid.In order to solve those problems effectively,it is necessary to analyze the characteristics of distributed PV and predict the output of distribution PV power generation.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of the development of distributed PV in China and abroad.Secondly,this paper discusses the latest progress in China and abroad on the output characteristics,prediction technology and prediction software of the distributed PV power generation.Finally,this paper discusses the key contents of the future research of the distributed PV,in order to provide the suggestions for the popularization and application of large-scale distributed PV in China.

关 键 词：分布式光伏 概率分布 出力特性 预测方法 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]