提高退休年龄对社会福利的影响——金融改革背景下的动态分析  

Increasing The Retirement Age and Its Impacts on Social Welfare:in The Perspective of Financial Reform

作　　者：叶兵[1] 许志伟[1] 管毅平[1] YE Bing XU Zhiwei GUAN Yiping(Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 20003)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2017年第4期14-26,共13页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403166);上海市哲学社会科学项目(2014EJL001)资助

摘　　要：中国金融改革的关键时期,养老保险改革如何影响社会福利?本文构建了一个具有利率管制的80期生命周期模型,定量分析了提高退休年龄对社会福利的影响。数值模拟发现:(1)不进行养老保险改革,人口老龄化将使养老保险的替代率急剧下降,提高退休年龄能缓解这一下降趋势;(2)退休年龄提高3岁将增进各代人的福利,其中,已退休和在劳动力市场人群的福利增进大于尚未进入劳动力市场人群;(3)利率市场化改革不仅本身有助于提高福利,还会对提高退休年龄政策产生外溢作用,表现为削弱(略微强化)了38岁以上人群(其他人)的福利增进。How will the social security reform affect social welfare in the critical period of China＇s financial reform？ This paper establishes an 80-period life-cycle model with interest rate regulation, and quantitatively analyzes the impacts of increas- ing the retirement age on social welfare. The main findings based on simulation are as follows ： （ 1 ） If no reforms are implemen- ted, the replacement ratio will drop sharply in the future. Increasing the retirement age can mitigate the decrease ; （2） Increas- ing the retirement age by 3 years in 2016 will increase the welfare of all cohorts. And the cohorts who have already retired or are in the labor market gain more than those who will come into the labor market in the future; （3） Liberalizing interest rates in 2016 will not only enhance the welfare of several cohorts, but also affect the effects of pension reform. While it dampens the effect of pension reform on those people older than 38, it slightly enhances the welfare of other cohorts.

关 键 词：延迟退休 利率市场化 社会福利 生命周期模型 数值模拟 

分 类 号：D632.1[政治法律—政治学] F249.21[政治法律—中外政治制度]