基于灰色预测的遂昌县农业电子商务发展对经济增长的贡献研究  

Research on the Contribution of Agricultural E-commerce Development to Economic Growth in Suichang——Based on Grey Prediction

作　　者：胡柳波[1] 谭颖[1] 曹雨[1] 李文秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉东湖学院管理学院,湖北武汉430212

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2017年第7期110-113,共4页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：湖北省科技支撑计划软科学研究类项目"农业电子商务平台生态系统构建与协同机制研究"(项目编号:2014BKH148)

摘　　要：近几年,在国家相关政策大力支持下,县域农业电子商务蓬勃发展。浙江省遂昌县农业电商发展迅速,2015年农产品网络销售额占GDP的比重达到5.96%,不仅占县域经济的比重越来越大,而且优化了当地的产业结构,带动了相关产业的发展,已成为遂昌县经济增长的重要力量。文中利用灰色预测模型预测未来5年遂昌县农业电子商务对县域经济增长的贡献,发现到2020年农产品网络销售额占GDP的比重将达26.53%。为实现此目标,文中提出了继续积极发挥政府引导和服务作用、创新投融资机制、完善人才培养体系、实施品牌战略等相应建议。In recent years,with the support of national policies,the county agricultural e-commerce has been developing rapidly,and its contribution to the county economy has become more and more important. The agricultural e-commerce in Suichang County of Zhejiang Province has been rapidly developing. In 2015 agricultural network sales accounted for 5. 96% of GDP. Not only the proportion of agricultural network sales accounting for the county economy has been growing,but also it has been optimizing the local industrial structure. Agricultural e-commerce has driven the development of related industries,has been becoming an important force in economic growth in Suichang. In this paper,the grey forecasting model is used to predict the contribution of Suichang＇s agricultural e-commerce to the county economic growth in the next 5 years. It is found that the proportion of the agricultural product network sales will account for 26. 53% of GDP in 2020. In order to achieve this goal,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as continuing to play the role of government guidance and service,creating the investment and financing mechanism,improving the personnel training system,and implementing the brand strategy.

关 键 词：遂昌县 农业电子商务 经济增长 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F323.0[经济管理—产业经济] F250