中国进口商品价格传导效应及其变动趋势：进口商品Armington替代弹性的视角  

China's Import Price Transmission Effect and It's Change Trend: Persepective of the Armington Elasticity of Substitution of Import Commodity

作　　者：孙飞[1] 吴崇宇[2] 陈福中[3] SUN Fei WU Chong-yu CHEN Fu-zhong(School of Economics, Chinese Academy of Governance, Beijing100089, China China Credit Research Center, Peking University, Beijing100871, China School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

机构地区：[1]国家行政学院经济学部 [2]北京大学中国信用研究中心 [3]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2017年第7期81-98,共18页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“把握经济发展趋势性特征,加快形成引领经济发展新常态的体制机制和发展方式研究”(批准号15ZDC009);国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于生产要素维度扩展的技术变化对产业结构演进的影响研究”(批准号71603049);北京市社会科学界联合会青年社科人才资助项目“技术创新推动京津冀产业协同升级的对策研究”(批准号QNRC201617)

摘　　要：随着改革开放和经济全球化进程的加快,中国与世界经济的融合不断加深,以"出口通胀"等为代表的国际贸易商品价格传导问题受到普遍关注。本文以Armington替代弹性作为研究中国进口商品价格传导效应的重要工具,实现了非同质产品假设以及进口商品Armington替代弹性从微观层面到宏观层面的理论拓展,并以此为基础,采用自回归分布滞后模型以及卡尔曼滤波迭代算法构建状态空间模型等进行改进,准确地估算出中国进口商品Armington替代弹性的整体水平,进而将进口商品价格传导效应由存在性分析引向动态性分析。研究发现:近年来中国进口商品Armington替代弹性经测算为负值,国际金融危机后该弹性明显下降;目前中国进口商品和国内商品存在互补性特征,进口价格传导效应虽然存在但并不显著,并且在国际金融危机后被进一步弱化。国际金融危机后中国价格水平的波动主要源于国内生产价格的走势,外部因素影响力有限,因此,应从预防输入性通货膨胀(或紧缩)风险转向预防国内因素带来的风险。With the acceleration of globalization, reform and opening, the economic integration for China with other economies worldwide is strengthened. The issue of international trade commodity price transmission, represented by export inflation, has been widely addressed. This paper used Armington elasticity of substitution as a key tool to explore the effect of China＇s import price transmission. Based on Armington＇s framework, hypothesis of heterogeneous commodity was been extend from micro level to macro level to develop improved method to estimate China＇s import Armington elasticity of substitution. To improve the estimation, auto-regressive distributed lag model and Kalman filtering iterative algorithm were used to build state space model. The total level of China＇s import Armington elasticity of substitution was estimated accurately. The study about import price transmission was extended from static existence to dynamic change. The results indicated that China＇s import Armington elasticity of substitution was negative and decreased after the international financial crisis. China＇s import commodities were complemented by domestic commodities, so there was no significant import price transmission which was as weakened after the international financial crisis. Hence, China＇s price fluctuation after the international financial crisis was mainly impacted by domestic production price and the influence from external factors was limited. It is necessary to pay more attention to take some political measures to prevent domestic price fluctuation risk rather than imported inflation of deflation.

关 键 词：Armington替代弹性 进口商品价格传导 状态空间模型 卡尔曼滤波迭代算法 结构向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]