全面二胎政策实施前后上海市居民生育特征比较分析  

Birth characteristics of Shanghai residents compared and analyzed before and after two-child policy

作　　者：蔡任之[1] 虞慧婷[1] 周峰[1] 钱耐思[1] 王春芳[1] YU Hui-ting ZHOU Feng QIAN Nai-si WANG Chun-fang(Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, Chin)

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海200336

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2017年第7期525-528,共4页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：上海市卫生和计划生育委员会科技发展基金项目(2013JG12);上海市第四轮公共卫生三年行动计划重点学科建设项目(15GWZK0801;15GWZK0901)

摘　　要：目的分析全面二胎政策实施前后上海市居民生育特征变化情况。方法收集全面二胎政策出台前2015年10月—2016年3月和出台后2016年10月—2017年3月上海市出生登记数据,比较政策实施前后出生人口的变化情况,并分析政策实施前后不同社会人口学特征人群的生育特征及其变化情况。结果全面二胎政策出台后上海市户籍产妇生育头胎增长率为16.04%,二胎及以上增长率为52.60%,高于非沪户籍居民。全面二胎政策的效应主要显现于相对高龄和高学历人群,其中30~34岁和35~39岁妇女,二胎增长率分别为48.53%和70.54%;学历为本科以上的的妇女,二胎增长率为73.28%。结论上海市人口生育水平略有增长,有利于抑制出生性别比偏高的态势,应密切关注和跟踪二胎政策的实施效果。Objective To compare and analyze the birth characteristics in Shanghai residents before and after the comprehensive two-child policy was carried out. Methods Birth registry data were collected from Shanghai population during October 2015 to March 2016 and during October 2016 to March 2017, for the comparison of changes in birth population before and after the two-child policy, and for the analysis on birth characteristics and its variation in population with different social and demographic features. Results After the two-child policy was carried out, birth population of Shanghai permanent residents increased 16.04% for first child, and for two or more, increased 52.60%. The increase rate was higher in permanent residents than in non-permanent residents. The effects of the comprehensive two-child policy were mainly on women of relatively older age or with higher education. With women aged 30-34 and 35-39, second child birth rate increased 48.53% and 70.54% respectively and with women with higher education, second child birth rate increased 73.28%. Conclusion Fertility level of Shanghai popula- tion rose slightly, which was benificial to inhibition of the high sex ratio at birth. We should pay close attention to and follow up the implementation effect of the two-child policy.

关 键 词：计划生育 二胎政策 生育水平 生育特征 低生育率 人口老龄化 出生性别比 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]