面向风险社会的应急管理决策支持体系研究  

Research on Decision Supporting System of Emergency Management for Risk Society

作　　者：郭骅[1] 苏新宁[1] Guo Hua

机构地区：[1]南京大学信息管理学院

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2017年第7期79-89,共11页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"面向突发事件应急决策的快速响应情报体系研究"(13&ZD174)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在充满开放性和不确定性的世界风险社会中,风险导致的危机和突发事件层出不穷、起因隐晦且相互关联,传统的应急管理组织模式面临巨大挑战。突发事件应急管理的主体不再仅由政府行政机构承担,而应建立起多方参与的社会合作机制。在新的治理模式中,具有开放式架构和自适应能力的决策支持体系成为应急管理的重要基石。面对风险社会的不确定性、反射性与易错性的共同影响,应急管理的决策范式有必要做出新的修正,并使其决策支持体系的组织和构建发展出不同以往的另一种模式。同时,这一应急管理决策支持体系也成为协作网络的重要支撑,并支持和促进应急管理社会合作机制的创新与发展。In a world risk society filled with openness and uncertainty, crisis and emergencies triggered by risk emerge in an endless stream with its causes obscure and interrelated, thus the tradi- tional organization and model for emergency management are facing great challenges. The emergency management body is no longer just under the government administration; instead, a social eoopera- tion mechanism of multi-party participation should be established. In the new management model, the decision supporting system with open structure and self-adaptive capacity becomes the major cor- nerstone of emergency management. Facing the combined impact of uncertainty, reflectivity and fal- libility of risk society, it is necessary for the decision-making paradigm for emergency management to make a new correction, and the organization and structure of its decision supporting system will have another possibility, which is different from the past. At the same time, this decision supporting sys- tem for emergency management will become a crucial support for the collaboration network, and sup- port and promote the innovation and development of emergency management social cooperation mech- anism.

关 键 词：风险社会 应急管理 决策支持体系 易错性 反射性 决策范式 

分 类 号：C91[经济管理]