洪水灾害风险分析进展与展望  

Flood Risk Analysis:Progress,Challenges and Prospect

作　　者：孙章丽[1,2,3] 朱秀芳[1,2,3] 潘耀忠[1,2,3] 刘宪锋[4] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学遥感科学与工程研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [4]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第3期125-130,136,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"服务于快速理赔的农作物灾害损失遥感评估方法研究"(41401479);国家"高分辨率对地观测系统"重大专项资助项目(211400015)

摘　　要：洪水灾害是目前国际上面临的主要灾害之一,洪灾风险分析是减轻灾害损失与影响的重要途径。在前人研究总结的基础上,分析了洪灾风险概念与内涵,介绍了洪灾风险发展历程,从历史数据、系统指标,以及遥感数据的角度总结了洪灾风险分析模型与方法,并介绍了其中常用模型与方法的特点与不足,包括概率统计法,情景模拟法,神经网络模型等。最后基于目前洪灾风险分析的挑战与不足,从4个方面对其未来发展方向进行了展望,即明晰洪灾机理研究、拓展洪灾风险分析模型与方法、加强3S技术在洪灾风险分析中的应用,以及加强综合灾害风险的研究。Flood disaster is one of the main natural disasters in the world. Prevention and mitigation flood dis- aster has became a hot issue and generally concerned in contemporary society with growing of flood intensity, fre- quency, and inundated area. Flood risk is the negative scenario of future flooding events, analyzing food risk is the important way to migrate flood loss and influence. Based on the predecessors＇work, we discussed the concept and development stage of flood risk, introduced the current situation and latest progress of flood risk. Meanwhile, we summary and discuss the characters and disadvantages of the models and methods assessing flood risk from the as- pect of data resource, including history data, system index, and remote sensing data. Finally, through the analysis of current challenges in flood risk assessment, further research prospects are proposed, including investigating the mechanism of flood risk, improving the models and methods of flood risk involution, strengthening the application of 3S technologies in flood risk research area. and improving the studying of integrated disasters risk.

关 键 词：洪水灾害 风险分析 研究进展 研究展望 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]