基于DSR模型的三峡库区贫困的时空演变分析——生态减贫视角  

Spatiotemporal Changes of Poverty in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region:Perspective of Ecological Poverty Reduction

作　　者：刘玥[1] 帅传敏[1] 程欣[1] 李文静[1] 帅竞 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,中国湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《经济地理》2017年第7期156-165,共10页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473231)

摘　　要：基于驱动力—状态—响应(DSR)模型,从生态视角提出了减贫指数测度指标体系并运用BP神经网络进行测度,再通过脱钩分析探讨了三峡库区的生态环境与社会经济之间的发展关系,最后运用GIS分析了三峡库区综合减贫压力的时间规律及空间分布。研究发现:(1)2007—2013年间,三峡库区扶贫压力在减轻的同时,76%的区县社会经济发展以超速的生态破坏为代价;(2)库首地区的综合减贫指数东高西低,呈现两极分化趋势;(3)库中地区贫困"塌陷",形成库区"发展分散,贫困集聚"的局面;(4)库尾呈现"生态—经济恶性循环"趋势。基于以上研究发现,从生态视角出发提出了旨在改善库区贫困问题的对策建议。The eco-environmental pressure of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region （TGRR） is increasing with the immigrants＇ relocation. The poverty alleviation work becomes more and more difficult, when the climate change and deterioration of eco-environment and are intertwined with immigrant poverty. Firstly, we put forward the index system of poverty alleviation pressure from the perspective of eco-environment based on the Driving forces-States-Responses （DSR） model. Then, we explore the developing relationship between eco-environment and social economy based on a Back Propagation （BP） Neural Network and decoupling analysis. Lastly, we analyze the trend of period and regional distribution of poverty alleviation pressure, based on Geographic Information System （GIS）. The results show that： （1） The poverty pressure is relieving from 2007 to 2013. Whereas, 76% of the counties in the TGRR are improving their economic development at the cost of destroying the eco-environment; （2） In the upper stream of the TGRR, the poverty alleviation indexes of the east are higher than the west, showing the trend of polarization; （3） In the middle of the TGRR, the poverty pressure collapses, conducing the situation of ＂decentralized development and poverty aggregations＂ in the TGRR; and （4） In the lower stream of the TGRR, it falls into ＂the vicious circle of eco-environment and economy＂. On the basis of the findings, we proposed some policy recommendations correspondingly in an effort to improve reservoir poverty from the eco-environmental perspective.

关 键 词：三峡库区 生态环境 贫困 减贫 DSR模型 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]