基于GERT网络的战略性新兴产业技术瓶颈探测模型  

A GERT Network Model for Detection of Technology Bottleneck in Strategic Emerging Industry

作　　者：郭本海[1,2] 陈玮[1] 吕东东[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2017年第4期728-736,共9页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173106);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2011ZDIXM057);江苏大学高级技术人才项目(13JDG124)

摘　　要：构建了以战略性新兴产业技术突破基本过程为基础的GERT网络模型,提出技术瓶颈测度系数,结合算例分析并通过数值模拟,探寻产业技术突破过程中的瓶颈节点所在;运用计算机仿真,测度瓶颈节点技术瓶颈测度系数的变化特征。结果表明,关键技术定位及突破等4个节点分别为各自阶段的瓶颈,针对瓶颈节点采取相应的技术创新管控措施可有效减小技术瓶颈测度系数直至稳定值。Based on the basic process of strategic emerging industrial technology, we construct the GERT network model and propose the technology bottleneck measure coefficients. Together with the numerical examples and numerical simulation, we explore where the bottleneck node in the process of industrial technological breakthroughs is located, and measure the change characteristic of the technology bottleneck node measure coefficient by computer simulation. The results show that four nodes and other key technology breakthroughs are positioning and bottlenecks in each stage, and take the appropriate control measures for technological innovation bottleneck nodes can effectively reduce technical bottlenecks coefficient measure until a stable value.

关 键 词：GERT网络 战略性新兴产业 技术瓶颈测度系数 技术突破 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]