房价、迁移摩擦与中国城市的规模分布——理论模型与结构式估计  

Housing Price,Migration Friction,and City-size Distribution in China:Theory Model and Structural Estimation

作　　者：刘修岩[1] 李松林[1] LIU Xiuyan LI Songlin(School of Economics and Management, Southeast Universit)

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,210096

出　　处：《经济研究》2017年第7期65-78,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目"新型城镇化背景下城市边界调整与城市综合承载力提升路径研究"(14&ZD138);国家社科基金一般项目"转型背景下我国城市蔓延的形成机理与经济效率影响研究"(15BJL107);江苏省社科研究基地项目(13JDB024);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2242014R30015)的资助

摘　　要：决定城市规模分布的关键因素有哪些?中国城市体系扁平化的形成机制又是什么?为回答这些问题,本文建立了一个考虑异质性个体迁移决策和房价内生性的城市体系模型,将影响城市规模分布的因素分解为效率、舒适度、迁移摩擦和房价四个方面:较高的效率和舒适度会促使城市规模增加,但相伴而生的高房价和迁移摩擦等集聚负外部性会抑制大城市规模的进一步扩张。进而基于结构式估计方法对中国城市的效率、迁移摩擦、房价和舒适度等特征进行了量化,并通过一系列反事实实验模拟了这些因素的变化对中国城市规模分布的影响。研究发现,效率、迁移摩擦和舒适度在中国城市规模分布的决定中发挥着重要的作用;消除城市间的房价差异几乎不影响人口的再配置,而消除迁移摩擦则会导致大规模的人口重新配置和带来显著的福利增进效应,这意味着迁移摩擦的存在是造成中国城市体系扁平化的关键致因。因此,全面推进户籍制度改革,有序放开城市的落户限制,进一步降低人口迁移中的空间摩擦,才能有效发挥市场的内生化力量,促进城市体系空间布局的优化。During the last several decades, rapid and extensive urbanization around China has been combined with population migration at a large scale, leading to substantial changes in urban systems and city spatial structures. According to the sixth nationwide population census, the migrating population in China is as much as 221 million people. As this figure makes up 16.58% of the total national population, the migrating population should not be neglected when studying China＇s urbanization and urban system. However, the reality in China is different compared with that in Western developed countries. As such, we must consider both the special institutional barrier in China, known as the hukou restriction, and the rocketing estate prices in big cities. Under the current rapid urbanization process in China, discrepancies in hukou restriction policies between different cities have a big effect on migration policy. Moreover, discrimination against the migrating population gives rise to an inequality of public welfare, making it difficult for the large numbers of migrants to integrate into their destination cities. This not only results in ＂imperfect urbanization＂ in China, but also hampers the formation of ideal urban systems as the inhabiting decisions of rural migrants are distorted and their migration costs increase. Thus, accurately measuring the effects of housing prices and hukou restrictions on city-size distribution is essential. This paper elaborates on the theoretical framework of Desmet ＆ Rossi-Hansberg （2013） and constructs a spatial general equilibrium model to analyze migration decisions with endogenous housing prices. In our paper, city-size distribution can be attributable to productivity, migration friction, housing price, and living amenities. We combine the theoretical model with factual data and measure the features in the four aforementioned dimensions. Thus, we see the effects of these dimensions on migration population and city size by means of countcrfactual analogy and structural estimat

关 键 词：迁移摩擦 结构式估计 城市规模分布 

分 类 号：C912.81[经济管理] F299.2[社会学]