全面二孩政策对中国劳动年龄人口数量和结构的影响:2017—2050  

The Impact of Universal Two-Child Policy on Labor Number and Structural in China:2017—2050

作　　者：顾和军[1,2] 李青[1] GU Hejun LI Qing(School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing 210044, China School of Business, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《人口与经济》2017年第4期1-9,共9页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473128);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(14YJC790038);中国博士后特别资助项目(2016T90435)

摘　　要：通过2000、2010年两次人口普查数据结合各年统计年鉴相关数据,对全面二孩政策实施后新增出生人口进行估算,预测2017—2050年总和生育率的变化趋势。进而利用队列要素法预测了全面二孩政策对我国2017—2050年劳动年龄人口数量和内部结构的影响。研究结果表明,全面二孩政策的实施虽然无法改变未来劳动年龄人口总量下降的大趋势,但是能够减轻劳动年龄人口数量下降的程度:到2050年全面二孩政策实施后低方案、中方案、高方案分别比现有政策不变时多出2993万、5374万和7585万劳动年龄人口;与此同时,该政策的实施能够提高青年劳动年龄人口占比,降低高龄劳动年龄人口占比,对于优化劳动年龄人口结构有一定效果。The paper estimates the incremental newly-born population and the trend of total fertility rate in 2017--2050 via census data of 2000, 2010 and related data of China Statistical Yearbook. Then we use cohort-component method to forecast total labor number and the change of the internal structure under the two kinds of policy. The results change the negative growth trend of labor number extent of labor number decline： compared with the show that, universal two-child policy would not in the future. But the policy could reduce the existing policy, low program of universal two- child policy, medium program of universal two-child policy and high program of universal two-child policy has more 29930 thousand, 53740 thousand and 75850 thousand labor number in 2050. At the same time, the policy could help to increase the proportion of young labor number and reduce the proportion of advanced age labor number, it would have some positive effects on optimizing the labor structure.

关 键 词：全面二孩政策 总和生育率 劳动年龄人口供给 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]