基于层次分析法的沿海大型石化项目海洋减灾能力评价  

Marine Disaster Mitigation Capacity Assessment of Coastal Petrochemical Projects Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：贾后磊[1] 张翠萍[1] 英晓明[1] 冉娟[1] 舒勰俊[1] 谭骏[2] 马毅[1] JIA Houlei ZHANG Cuiping YING Xiaoming RAN Juan SHU Xiejun TAN Jun MA Yi(South China Sea Institute of Planning and Environmental Research, SOA, Guangzhou 510300,China National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, SOA, Beijing 100194,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海规划与环境研究院,广州510300 [2]国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京100194

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2017年第6期71-76,共6页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：国家海洋减灾中心专项"工程类海洋减灾能力综合评估方法预研"

摘　　要：文章针对沿海大型石化项目和海洋灾害特点,以工程自身防护能力、公司预警报能力和公司响应应急能力为准则层,筛选18项指标建立沿海大型石化项目海洋减灾能力评价体系,运用层次分析法构建沿海大型石化项目海洋减灾能力评价指标层次结构模型。结果显示,影响沿海大型石化项目海洋减灾能力的准则层权重由大到小依次为工程自身防护能力、公司预警报能力和公司响应应急能力。从各评价指标权重看,海堤高程和海堤完好程度是工程自身防护能力的主要影响指标;重大危险源监控覆盖率和主体防护工程定期检查频次是公司预警报能力的主要影响指标;应急设备保障率和应急物资储备度是公司响应应急能力的主要影响指标。以惠州炼化项目为例对其海洋减灾能力进行评价,应用该方法的评价结果比较客观可行,与项目现状比较吻合,可以为其海洋减灾能力建设提供指导。The coastal protection engineerings protection ability,the companys early warning mechanism and the companys emergency response capability were selected as the criterion layer,which included 18 indicators,to build the coastal petrochemical project evaluation index system of marine disaster reduction capacity.By using the methods of analytic hierarchy process（AHP）,marine disaster reduction capacity evaluation model for coastal petrochemical projects was constructed.According to the model calculation results,the criterion layer weight ranks as：the coastal protection engineerings protection capacity,the companys early warning mechanism and thecompanys emergency response capacity.The results showed that seawall elevation and the degree of seawall in good condition were the key indicators impacting the coastal protection engineerings protection capacity.The monitoring coverage of major hazard sources and the frequency of regular check for protection engineering were the main impact indexes for the companys early warning mechanism.The assurance rate of emergency equipment and the emergency supplies reserves degree were the main impact indexes for the companys emergency response capacity.By using above methods,the marine disaster reduction capacity of Huizhou refinery project was evaluated.The evaluation results agreed with the Huizhou refinery projects actual situation.

关 键 词：海洋石化项目 海洋灾害 海洋工程 防灾减灾 海堤工程 

分 类 号：P7[天文地球—海洋科学]