中央“不得调地”政策:农民的态度与村庄的土地调整决策——基于对黑龙江、安徽、山东、四川、陕西5省农户的调查  

The Government's Policy of No Land Readjustment: Farmers' Attitudes and Land Reallocation in Villages:A Study on Farm Households from Five Provinces in China

作　　者：郑志浩[1] 高杨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国农村观察》2017年第4期72-86,共15页China Rural Survey

基　　金：农业部课题"农村人口变动对稳定土地承包关系的影响研究"(编号:04162130112243015)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：本文基于2016年对黑龙江、安徽、山东、四川、陕西5省农户的调查数据,就农民对"不得调地"政策的态度和村庄的土地调整决策以及它们的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:反对承包期内"不得调地"政策的农户占16.4%,反对"不得调地"政策长久不变的农户占39.3%,意味着二轮承包到期后农民的土地调整意愿极为强烈;2011~2016年,约16%的农户经历过土地调整,其土地调整次数平均为1.36次,明显低于已有相关文献提及的2010年前的水平;受"不得调地"政策负面影响的家庭人口越多,"不得调地"政策的受支持程度越低,说明家庭人口变动是影响农民对"不得调地"政策态度的主要因素;农民对承包期内"不得调地"政策的态度对村庄的土地调整决策具有显著影响,持反对态度的农民越多,村庄土地调整的概率和频率越高,反之,村庄土地调整的概率和频率越低,意味着村庄内部土地调整的呼声是村庄土地调整决策的重要考量因素。考虑到受"不得调地"政策影响的农村人口有相当大的比例,可以预见,二轮承包到期后要求进行土地调整的压力会很大,在农村土地集体所有制框架内,实现长久"不得调地"的政策目标有一定难度。This study investigates farmers＇ attitudes toward land readjustment policy as well as land reallocation practices in villages, using household survey data from five provinces in China in 2016. The results are as follows： first, there are 16.4% and 39.3% of farmers under investigation who oppose the policy of no land readjuslment within contractual term and who dislike the policy of no land readjustment permanently, respectively. This suggests that farmers＇ preference for land readjustment is strong when the second round of land contractual term expires in 2028. Second, during 2011-2016, there were about 16% of sample households whose land has been reallocated, averaging 1.36 times ofreadjnstment. This indicates that the frequency of land reallocation in villages has declined significantly as compared to prior to 2010 found by previous studies. Third, population change is a decisive factor in determining farmers＇ attitudes toward land readjustment and, consequently, an increase in the number of family members is expected to decrease farmers＇ support to the government＇s policy of no land readjustment. Fourth, the stronger the farmers＇ preference for land readjustment is, the larger the frequency of land reallocation in villages will be, suggesting that farmers＇ attitude toward land readjustment is a prerequisite of land reallocation in villages. The study concludes by noting the difficulties in achieving the goal of no land readjustment permanently in the context of collective ownership of rural land.

关 键 词：土地调整 土地承包权 农民态度 

分 类 号：F301.0[经济管理—产业经济]