二氧化碳排放的IO-SDA模型及其实证研究  

IO-SDA Model of CO_2 Emissions and its Empirical Research

作　　者：廖明球[1] 许雷鸣[2] Liao Mingqiu Xu Leiming

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [2]首都经济贸易大学

出　　处：《统计研究》2017年第7期62-70,共9页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"中国低碳经济统计数据库及其量化模型研究"(14BTJ026)资助

摘　　要：本文在现有的中国投入产出表的基础上编制了其可比价格的"碳排"投入产出表,运用IO-SDA模型(投入产出结构分解模型),对我国各部门二氧化碳排放总量进行了分解研究。首先设计二氧化碳排放的IO-SDA模型,提出一个基本分析框架;然后分解分析二氧化碳排放总量,研究影响这一指标的主要因素;对各部门的二氧化碳完全排放强度进行分解分析,利用已经得到的各年的二氧化碳排放系数矩阵、能耗结构矩阵、直接能耗强度对角矩阵和列昂惕夫逆矩阵,采用结构分解方法研究各部门完全二氧化碳排放强度;最后根据研究结论提出调整能源供给结构、调整产业结构、促进生产技术创新、实现最终产品低碳化等政策建议。The threat of global warming to the long-term development of human society has made people aware of the importance of reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting the development of Low-Carbon Economy. Thus Low-Carbon Economy （LCE） should be a new mode of economic development and the important content of constructing the ecological civilization. Based on the constant-price CO2 emissions input- output tables, this article applies IO-SDA （ input-output model and structural decomposition analysis model） to analyze CO2 emissions of different departments in China. Firstly, this paper designs the IO-SDA model of CO2 emissions and proposes a basic analysis framework. Secondly, we analyze the total CO2 emissions in decomposition and study main factors affecting it. Thirdly, we analyze the total CO2 emissions intensity of different departments in decomposition, which involves using calculated CO2 emissions coefficient matrix, energy-consumption structural matrix, diagonal matrix of direct energy-consumption intensity and Leontief inverse matrix as well as applying structural decomposition analysis to research each department＇ s total CO2 emissions intensity. Lastly, this paper puts forward empirical analysis results： the important factor resulting in the rise of the total amount of CO2 emissions is the rise of the final demand ; the factors leading to the significant change of the CO2 emissions intensity of various departments are the structural input effect. Thereby we propose corresponding policy recommendations which include adjusting the structure of energy-consumption supply, optimizing the industrial structure, promoting technological innovation, and realizing the low-carbonization of final products.

关 键 词：投入产出 结构分解 模型 分析 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]