从第13届PSAM国际会议的动态展望概率安全评估发展  

Trends of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Based on an Overview of the 13^(th) PSAM International Conference

作　　者：梁峥[1,2] 张笛[1,2] 张金奋[1,2] 范诗琪[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,武汉430063

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2017年第1期10-18,54,共10页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51579203);国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAG20B01)资助

摘　　要：自2015年东方之星翻沉事故和天津港爆炸事故发生后,交通安全研究越来越受到学术界的广泛关注和重视。介绍了第13届概率安全评估和管理国际会议(13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management,PSAM 13)的概况。通过对该国际会议的大会报告和所发表论文进行分类统计,围绕系统安全研究的主题,对概率安全评估、人因可靠性分析、工业安全、交通运输安全和不确定性等研究热点问题的总结。旨在探讨"一带一路"大背景下,如何通过概率安全评价等理论的研究提高交通系统安全水平。对交通系统概率安全评估未来的发展趋势和目标进行探讨,提出了基于概率安全评估的交通系统安全评价框架,为预防交通事故、提升交通系统安全水平提供帮助。Since the overturn accident of ＂Eastern Star＂ and the explosion in Tianjin Port, traffic safety has become one of the hottest themes. This paper introduces general information of the 13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management （PSAM 13）. Keynote presentations and technical papers are categorized according to their subjects. Hot topics in the field of system safety including probabilistie safety assessment theory, human reliability analysis theory, industrial safety theory, transportation safety theory, as well as uncertainties are summarized. Discus- sions are also made on how to use PSA theory to improve safety of transportation along with the implementation of China＇s ＂the Belt and Road Initiative＂. Future trends on probabilistic safety assessment of transport system from the PSAM 13 have been illustrated. Furthermore, a framework of safety assessment on transport system based on probabilistic safety assess ment theory is developed in order to prevent traffic accidents and improve traffic safety.

关 键 词：交通系统 交通安全 概率安全评估 人因可靠性 不确定性 

分 类 号：U9[交通运输工程]