经济快速发展地区耕地非农化演变路径及异质性研究——以广州市黄埔区为例  

Research on Evolution Path and Heterogeneity of Cultivated Land Conversion in the Rapid Economic Development Area——A Case Study of Huangpu District,Guangzhou City

作　　者：陈美招[1] 张雅琪[2] 郑荣宝[2] 唐晓莲[2] 李爽[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学政治与公共管理学院,广东广州510420 [2]广东工业大学管理学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2017年第8期942-947,1000,共7页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41001054);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(编号:13YJCZH016;13YJA840009;14YJA630053)资助

摘　　要：耕地非农化的驱动机制研究一直是国内外学者关注的重点。以STIRPAT和GWR模型为基础,分析了广州市黄埔区人口总量、富裕水平、产业结构变化和城市化水平等因素对耕地非农化的影响。结果表明:(1)2010—2015年黄埔区耕地非农化进程在空间格局上发生了巨大变化,逐渐由南向北扩散,中部和北部建设用地快速向北扩张,耕地非农化进程加快。(2)无论是2010年还是2015年,广州市人口数量对耕地非农化进程的影响均呈现出正效应,而富裕水平、第二产业比重和城市化水平对耕地非农化进程的影响作用有正有负。在黄埔区南部,随着人口数量和富裕水平的提高,会进一步推进耕地非农化进程,而随着第二产业比重的减小和城市化水平的提高,将在一定程度上减缓耕地非农化进程;在中部和北部地区,人口数量的正效应和富裕水平的双重效应的作用相对南部而言较弱,第二产业比重和城市化水平的影响明显强于南部。Research on the driving mechanism of cultivated land non - agriculturalization was always the focus of scholars at home and abroad. Based on STIRPAT and GWR model, this paper analyzed the economic and social factors such as population, rich level, industrial structure change and urbanization level, how to impact on non- agricultural land. The results showed that ： ①Arable land non- agricultural of process in space patteru had drastically changed from 2010 to 2015 in Huangpu District, from southern to north, and central to north expansion, arable land non - agricultural of process speeded up. ②Numbers of population had positive effects on the process of non - agricultural cultivation in both 2010 and 2015, while tbe level of affluence, the proportion of secondary industry and the level of urbanization had negative effects on the non - agricultural process of cuhivated land. In the southern part of the Huangpu District, with the increased in the number and the richness of the population in the southern part of the Huangpu District, the process of non - agricuhuralization of the cultivated land would be further promoted. With the decreased of the proportion of the secondary industry and the improvement of the urbanization level, however, in the central and northern regions, the effect of the positive effect of popu- lation quantity and the dual effect of wealth level was weaker than that of the south, and the effect of the level of urbanization was obviously stronger than secondary industry.

关 键 词：耕地非农化 驱动力 社会经济因素 STIRPAT模型 异质性 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]