淮河流域2016年汛期洪水预报试验  

Test on Flood Forecasts for Huaihe River in the 2016 Flood Season

作　　者：包红军 张珂[2,3] 魏丽 李致家[2] 宗志平 谌芸 狄靖月 栾承梅[4] 刘开磊[5] 曹勇 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [4]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,南京210029 [5]淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心),蚌埠233001

出　　处：《气象》2017年第7期831-844,共14页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51509043);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402702;2016YFC0402701和2016YFC0402705);中国气象局首批青年英才计划"中小河流洪水气象预警关键技术研究"(2014-2017);中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)06]和中国气象局气象预报预测业务与科研结合专项(CMAHX20160601)共同资助;国家气象中心水文气象预报团队项目

摘　　要：预报大流域降雨径流与洪水是非常复杂的预报难题。本研究建立气象水文耦合预报模型对复杂大流域的洪水预报进行预报试验。模型采用中央气象台格点化降水预报产品作为预见期内降水,驱动水文水动力学耦合模型进行洪水预报。选择新安江水文模型用于流域降雨径流模拟,基于扩散波与柱蓄和楔蓄理论建立Muskingum-Cunge水位流量演算模型进行具有行蓄洪区的复杂河系洪水预报。以淮河鲁台子站以上流域2016年汛期洪水为例,将构建的气象水文耦合预报模型进行洪水预报试验。结果表明,模型取得了较好的预报精度,应用格点化降水预报产品考虑预见期内降水预报的洪水预报对于不考虑预见期降水预报,洪水预报预见期得到一定的有效延长,对同类流域预报有一定的借鉴意义。Rainfall runoff simulation and flood forecasting of large river basins is a complex prediction prob- lem. An integrated hydro-meteorological forecast model is developed for flood forecast test of complex riv- er basins. Grid-based quantitative precipitation forecast products of National Meteorological Centre are ap- plied as precipitation of lead-time period, and the Xinranjiang hydrological model is used for rainfall-runoff process simulation. The Muskingum-Cunge model, based on diffusion, columbar storage and wedge stor- age theory, is introduced for channel water-level and discharge forecasting. For the test case of the upper reaches of the Lutaizi Station of the Huaihe River in flood season of 2016, the developed hydro-meteoro- logical forecast model of complex river basins is applied in flood forecast test. The results show that the developed model can perform well. Compared with no considering the precipitation in lead-time period, the flood forecast lead-time can be increased obviously. The developed model has certain reference significance for flood forecasting over similar basins.

关 键 词：洪水预报试验 格点化定量降水预报 新安江模型 Muskingum-Cunge 水位流量预报 淮河流域 

分 类 号：P641.49[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]