京津冀城镇化、人口老龄化与碳排放关系的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship among Urbanization,Population Aging and Carbon Emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：于洋[1] 孔秋月[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第8期56-59,80,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"协同创新视域下我国化工企业国际核心竞争力研究"(PTRW1709)

摘　　要：引入城镇化和老龄化指标对KAYA恒等式做出修正后建立静态和动态面板模型,结合京津冀地区1995—2014年的数据进行分析后发现:人均GDP、人口规模、能源强度、能源消费碳强度及第二产业比重均与碳排放呈正相关关系,且各变量对碳排放影响的弹性系数大小依次为0.99、0.53、0.42、0.26和0.20。老龄化与碳排放呈显著的倒"U"形关系,即初期人口老龄化会因人口红利的存在对碳排放产生促进作用,但长远来看老龄人口比例的增加会使社会的生活模式向低碳方向转变;城镇化对碳排放也存在先促进后抑制的倒"U"型影响;碳排放对环境影响存在滞后效应,即上一期碳排放与当期碳排放存在正相关关系,其影响系数为0.57。By modifying the KAYA model with the indicator of population aging and urbanization, the essay establishes the dynamic and static model and makes an empirical analysis with panel data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 1995 to 2014. The results show that per capita gross domestic product, population size, energy intensity, carbon emission intensity of energy consumption and the proportion of secondary industry have a positive correlation with carbon emission, and the elasticity coefficient of each variable is 0.99, 0.53, 0.42, 0.26 and 0.20. The relationship of population aging and carbon emission follows an inverted U-shaped, that is carbon emission will keep an upward trend in the early stage of population ageing due to the existence of population dividend, but population aging will make the social life model shift to a low carbon direction with the intensification of population aging in the long run. And there also is an inverted U-shaped relation between urbanization and carbon emission. The carbon emission has a lagged effect on the environment, which is the last period carbon emission with a positive impact on the current carbon emission and the influence coefficient is 0.57.

关 键 词：城镇化 人口老龄化 碳排放 KAYA模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F062.2