基于盲数理论的低碳建筑全寿命周期成本估算  

Full Life Cycle Cost Estimation of Low-Carbon Building Based on Blind Number Theory

作　　者：梁喜[1] 陈永鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第8期85-89,共5页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：环境问题越来越影响人们的生活,低碳理念也逐渐渗透到各行各业。以低碳理念下的建筑项目为研究对象,分析其在全寿命周期视角下不同于普通建筑的成本构成。借鉴既有理论研究,将碳排放减少量的价值量化并作为新的成本参数,并在分析了寿命周期内各成本参数的不确定因素后,通过盲数理论处理此类盲信息,建立基于盲数理论的低碳建筑LCC模型。结果表明:该模型不仅能够得出LCC的估算区间,还能附以相应区间的可信度,对碳排放减少量的估算更能体现低碳建筑的成本价值。相比传统估算模型,该估算结果简洁准确。Environmental issues increasingly affect people＇s lives, low-carbon concept has gradually penetrated into all walks of life. In this paper, the construction project under the concept of low-carbon for the study, then analyses its costs which are different from ordinary buildings in the life-cycle cost perspective. According to the previous theoretical study, we quantity the value of carbon emissions reduction as a new cost parameter. After analysis the uncertainty of the life-cycle cost parameters, set up the low-carbon buildings LCC model based on the blind number theory. The numerical simulation example results show that the model not only can obtain estimation interval, but also can calculate the credibility of corresponding interval, and the estimation of the carbon emissions reduction can reflect the really value of low-carbon buildings. Compared with the traditional estimation model, the estimated results are more concise and accurate.

关 键 词：盲数理论:低碳建筑 寿命周期 成本 

分 类 号：TU111.195[建筑科学—建筑理论] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]