时变条件下基于事故综合特征的危险品运输人口风险评估模型研究  

Research on Population Risk Assessment Model of Hazardous Material Transportation Based on Accident Comprehensive Characteristics under Time-varying Conditions

作　　者：贺政纲[1] 房杰[1] 张超[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2017年第4期168-172,共5页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13CGL127);四川省软科学计划项目(2013ZR0041)

摘　　要：为科学合理地评价危险品运输的人口风险,需同时考虑危险品种类、事故类型、事故分级对危险品运输风险的影响。基于危险品运输事故历史统计数据,结合危险品运输事故率修正因子,得到了更为精确的危险品运输事故率,并根据危险品运输事故率、事故后果及运输时间的时变特性,构建了时变条件下基于事故综合特征的危险品运输人口风险评估模型。算例评估结果表明:危险品运输的人口风险因危险品种类、事故类型和事故等级而异;不同出发时间的人口风险不同,选择恰当的出发时间可有效降低危险品运输的人口风险。In order to evaluate the risk of hazardous material transportation population scientifically and rationally, the influence of hazardous material category,accident type and accident classification on transportation risk of hazardous materials is considered at the same time. Based on the historical data of hazardous material transportation accidents and the correction factors of hazardous material transportation accidents, this paper obtains the more accurate accident rate of hazardous material transportation. According to the hazardous material transportation accident rate,the accident consequence and the transportation time-varying characteristic,the paper establishes a risk assessment model of hazardous material transportation population based on accident comprehensive characteristics under the time-varying condition. The results show that hazardous material transportation population risk varies due to hazardous materials category, accident type and accident level varies. Since population risk at different starting time is different, choosing the appropriate departure time can effectively reduce risk in population transportation.

关 键 词：危险品运输 人口风险评估 事故率修正因子 时变条件 

分 类 号：X95[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U492.336.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]