气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植模式和产量的影响  

Effects of Climate Change on Cropping Pattern and Yield of Summer Maize-Winter Wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

作　　者：孙新素 龙致炜 宋广鹏[1] 陈长青[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学应用生态研究所,南京210095

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2017年第13期2476-2487,共12页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951501);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2011BAD16B14)

摘　　要：【目的】全球气候正以变暖为主要特征发生显著变化,探究气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植制度的影响,为制定合理的应对措施提供理论依据。【方法】通过气象站点观测值的加权平均和一元线性回归分析黄淮海各省市地区1992—2013年来的气候变化特征。利用农业气象站点多年长期观察的夏玉米-冬小麦物候数据,通过加权求平均,分析气候变暖背景下夏玉米-冬小麦的生育期和茬口推移情况。采用一元线性回归分析1992—2013年来黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦周年产量变化。同时利用非线性回归分析法和面板数据敏感性分析法分析气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦周年产量的影响。【结果】1992—2013年来,黄淮海地区温度整体呈现波动上升趋势,降水总量变化趋势不明显,但区域差异显著。在气候变化的背景下,黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植模式发生明显改变:冬小麦播种时间推迟,生育期存在缩短趋势,不同地区缩短2—5 d不等;夏玉米播种时间南部推迟而北部提前,收获时间总体呈现推迟趋势,整个黄淮海地区生育时长未发生明显变化。茬口时间因夏玉米-冬小麦生育期的推移呈现不同程度延长,造成了气候和土地资源的浪费。1992—2013年间黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦单产呈显著上升趋势,多数省份达到显著水平。非线性敏感性分析表明,最低温度、最高温度和平均温度对夏玉米-冬小麦产量的影响基本表现为同时增产或同时减产的一致性。冬小麦产量受最低温度的影响最为显著,东南部的江苏省和山东省减产明显,而北部河北省和西部河南省表现为增产。温度升高除对河南省夏玉米有增产作用外,其他省份夏玉米产量均出现不同程度的降低,这可能与温度升高的幅度不同和降水的区域性差异有关。降水量对夏玉米-冬小麦产量影响存在地区差异。总体�【Objective】Global climate is changing significantly characterized by warming. Exploring the influence of climate warming on winter wheat-summer maize cropping system in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain（HHH） to provide a theoretical foundation for formulating reasonable counter measures. 【Method】 The meteorological data, phenological data and yield data of HHH during 1992-2013 were used to analyze the effect of climate change on summer maize-winter wheat system by the mathematical statistics analysis method. The meteorological information including the temperature and precipitation data were obtained from China Meteorological Administration. Climate change of HHH area during 1992-2013 were analyzed by monadic linear regression. Through the weighted average of phenological data, the growth period and stubbles changes of summer maize-winter wheat were analyzed. The summer maize-winter wheat yields during 1992-2013 were analyzed by monadic linear regression. What＇s more, nonlinear regression analysis and panel data sensitivity analysis were used to analyze the effect of climate change on annual yield of summer maize-winter wheat.【Result】The temperature of HHH showed a rising trend while precipitation generally remained unchange in the 1992-2013, but the regional difference was obvious. Climate change significantly changed the summer maize and winter wheat planting system： The whole growth stages of winter wheat observably shortened by 2 to 5 days in different regions with sowing time delayed. Sowing time of maize showed a difference of southern delay but northern advance while mature time delayed in general. What＇s more, there was no significant change of summer maize growth period in the whole area. Stubbles time of summer maize-winter wheat was postponed because of the change of growth period, which led to the waste of climatic resources and land resources. In recent years, the anniversary yields of summer maize and winter wheat showed a significant rising trend in HHH. Climate sensitivity analysis showed

关 键 词：气候变化 夏玉米-冬小麦 种植模式 产量 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学] S513