1961—2012年山东省气温变化及对农业热量条件影响  

Temperature Change and Its Influence on Thermal Conditions of Agriculture in Shandong: Based on Data of 52 Years

作　　者：韩荣青[1] 包维虎 赵明华[1] 李娇娇[1] 傅双[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学地理与环境学院,济南250014

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2017年第16期112-122,共11页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"综合气候变化影响与风险时空格局评估技术"(2012BAC19B10);山东省高等学校科技计划项目"气候变化背景下的山东省粮食生产时空格局与增产研究"(J13LH01);山东省社科规划重点项目"山东省粮食生产与粮食安全体系建设研究"(08BJGJ05)

摘　　要：为了解山东省近52年的气温变化对农业热量条件和粮食生产的影响,据1961—2012年气象站数据,利用GIS方法提取气温变化和农业热量条件变化指标,分析山东省气温时空分布规律、变化特征及对农业生产条件的影响。结果表明:(1)山东省及鲁西、鲁中、鲁东地区年、四季平均气温整体增温显著,2000年后增温更明显。春、冬季和全年平均气温从1990s以后增温显著,夏、秋季近52年来气温有波动,但整体增温较小;(2)山东省东部增温幅度最大,西部最小,呈自西向东增加趋势;(3)山东省及3个地区秋、夏季气温倾向率较小,而冬季和春季呈"暖冬"、"暖春"现象;(4)山东省≥0℃和≥10℃积温呈上升趋势,特别是近10年上升幅度较大;全省≥0℃和≥10℃初终日间持续日数波动较大,呈上升趋势。The paper aims to understand the effect of temperature change on thermal conditions of agricultureand grain production in Shandong Province. Based on weather stations＇ data from 1961 to 2012, we extractedthe change index of temperature and agricultural thermal condition using GIS to analyze the spatio-temporaldistribution laws and variation characteristics of temperature and the effect on agricultural productive conditionin Shandong. The results showed that：（1） the average temperature of the four seasons in Shandong and thewest, the central and the east of Shandong increased significantly on the whole, after 2000, the trend was moreobvious; the spring, winter and annual average temperature showed a significant warming from 1990 s,temperature in summer and autumn fluctuated in the 50 years, but the overall warming was minor;（2） thetemperature increased the most in east Shandong, while the least in west Shandong, the temperature showed anupward trend from the west to the east;（3） the temperature tendency rates of autumn and summer in Shandongand the west, the central and the east of Shandong were low, while＂warm winter＂and＂warm spring＂phenomena appeared in winter and spring;（4） the ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature rose inShandong, especially in the last 10 years; the interval days between the first and the last day of ≥0℃ and≥10℃ fluctuated greatly, but the trends were all rising.

关 键 词：气候 气温变化 线性倾向估计 积温 农业热量条件 山东省 

分 类 号：P423.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]