国防支出、经济增长与收入差异研究  

Research of Defense Spending,Economic Growth and Income Difference

作　　者：孙健慧[1] 罗欣伟 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学商学院,天津300134 [2]中国电子科技集团发展战略研究中心,北京100041

出　　处：《海南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2017年第4期52-59,共8页Journal of Hainan University （Humanities & Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD162);天津商业大学新进人员科研启动项目(R161106)

摘　　要：综合考虑当期国防支出和前期国防支出对经济增长的影响,基于索洛增长理论,引入国防支出的一阶滞后,重点研究国防支出及其一阶滞后与经济增长之间的关联性。并以此为框架,以1988—2014年G20为样本,为解决收入差异造成的异质性问题,利用两步法系统GMM分别对全部G20及高收入国家、低收入国家进行面板估计,从而得到比之前研究更全面、更稳健的估计量。结果表明,高收入国家国防支出对其经济增长有短期和长期的显著的消极影响,而低收入国家短期内有消极影响,长期中又有积极作用,但两种情形下国防支出与经济增长均不存在显著的相关性。基于此,为了促进国防建设与经济建设协调发展,高收入国家可适当削减军费开支,而低收入国家应适度提高国防经费。Considering the influence of current and previous defense spending on economic growth, this paper, based on the Solow growth model, introduces the first-order lag of defense spending to mainly examine the corre- lation between economic growth and defense spending with its first-order lag. This framework is further used to solve the problem of heterogeneity caused by income difference. With G20 from 1988 to 2014 as the sample, the two-step system GMM is adopted to carry out a panel-data estimation of the entire G20 as well as high-income and low-income countries respectively so as to obtain more comprehensive and robust estimators. The results show that a negative significance exists between defense spending in the high-income countries and its economic growth in both the short and long run. However, for the low-income countries the influence is negative only in the short run and positive in the long run while there is no significant correlation between defense spending and economic growth under two circumstances. Accordingly, it is suggested that high-income countries appropriately cut military expenditure while low-income countries moderately improve defense spending, in order to promote the harmonious development of defense construction and economic construction.

关 键 词：国防支出 经济增长 系统GMM估计 索洛增长模型 异质性 

分 类 号：F063.3[经济管理—政治经济学]